A strike that could come before the midterms

Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, said on Friday, 23 October 2026, that the United States could strike Iran as early as 24 and 25 October. He made the remark in an interview with the influencer Mario Nawfal, and he answered plainly that such an attack was possible that weekend. The statement follows several days of rising threats from Washington and Israel. The timing falls just before the US midterm elections on 3 November, a date Trump had earlier been linked to when he suggested his decision on Iran would not come before then.

Trump has said several times recently that he will soon take a decision on Iran, describing the options as a softer path or a harder one.

Talks at a standstill

Barrack said Trump is open to a deal that is available and accessible, and he added that Washington has been at the negotiating table for months. Talks between Washington and Tehran are deadlocked, nearly eight months after the conflict began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran. A US decision to pull some diplomatic staff from the region recalls the one taken shortly before the first strike campaign, which began on 28 February 2026. Iran has in turn threatened to strike US military bases.

Israel and the question of regime change

Benjamin Netanyahu, whom Trump publicly backed ahead of Israel's elections in the week of 26 October, said on Wednesday, 21 October, that overthrowing the Iranian regime was the only option to remove the threat from Tehran. On Monday, 19 October, Netanyahu met US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at a military base where the Iran conflict was on the agenda. During a video call that followed, Netanyahu thanked Trump for his support. The two appeared to agree that they must go all the way in Iran.

Gulf targets and staff departures

The US State Department has ordered all staff at its embassy in Riyadh, along with their families, to leave, a diplomatic source told AFP on Wednesday, 21 October. Families of embassy staff in the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain have also been ordered out. Saudi Arabia faces near-daily attacks from the Yemeni Houthis, who are backed by Iran. A missile attack earlier in October on Riyadh killed 13 people, and the city's airport remains closed. On Thursday, 22 October, the Houthis claimed a deadly attack on Dammam airport, which has since reopened. Aramco has evacuated its Dhahran offices, and several multinationals have asked employees to work from home.

Signs of a new bombing wave

The US and Israel are considering a new round of bombing on Iran, according to a report published on 23 October, and a new operation could begin in early November, after Israel's elections and the US midterms. A source close to the file said Israel initially wanted to strike in mid-October, but the US opposed the idea. Netanyahu has denied that account. The deployment of additional US troops to the region raises the likelihood of that scenario, the report says.