Polish wages rise 5.9% in June, industrial output jumps 7.6% as economy beats forecasts

Poland's economy delivered a set of June indicators that exceeded analyst expectations, according to data released by Statistics Poland (GUS) on Monday. Average pay in the enterprise sector rose, industrial production accelerated, and construction output picked up, while employment continued to edge lower.

Wages and employment

The average gross monthly wage in firms employing at least 10 people reached 9,401.58 zł in June, up 5.9% from a year earlier and 2.5% from May. Economists surveyed by PAP Biznes had forecast a 5.6% annual rise. Employment in the sector fell 0.9% year-on-year to 6.4 million full-time equivalents, unchanged from the previous month and exactly in line with projections.

Wage growth has now hovered between 5.4% and 5.9% for three consecutive months, the slowest pace since late 2020. After accounting for inflation of 2.5%, real wages rose about 3.3%. The June print was likely lifted by one-off bonus payments at copper producer KGHM, which Pekao economists estimated added 0.3 percentage points to the headline figure.

Separate data from the National Debt Register (KRD) showed that 1.9 million Poles had overdue payments at the end of 2025, with total arrears reaching 40.5 billion zł. The median debt of 4,931 zł equalled 86% of a typical net monthly salary, and for those aged 55–64 it exceeded 115% of net pay.

Industrial production

Industrial output rose 7.6% year-on-year in June, ahead of the 7.2% consensus, and by 2.0% month-on-month. After seasonal adjustment, production was 5.5% higher than a year earlier and 0.1% above May's level. The headline number benefited from an extra working day and a low base effect, which Pekao put at roughly 1 percentage point.

Growth was broad-based: 26 of 34 industrial divisions expanded. The strongest performers included other transport equipment (up 24.9%), paper and paper products (19%), waste recovery (16.5%), and electricity and gas supply (16.4%). Production of investment goods rose 7.3%, supply goods nearly 12%, and non-durable consumer goods 7.4%. In contrast, output of durable consumer goods fell 1.2%, with furniture down 2.5%, as Chinese and Turkish competition squeezed Polish manufacturers on European markets. Tobacco production slumped 10.2% and textiles 7.0%.

Construction and prices

Construction and assembly output grew 5.2% year-on-year and 11.5% month-on-month, beating forecasts of 5.0% and 10.8% respectively. The number of dwellings on which construction started jumped 32.3% from a year earlier, while 858,500 units remained under construction at the end of June, 0.6% more than in June 2025.

Producer prices in industry rose 1.7% year-on-year, slightly above the 1.6% expected, and fell 0.2% from May, matching estimates.

What economists say

Analysts broadly welcomed the figures but cautioned against reading them as a reversal of the cooling trend.

Better-than-expected data do not negate the slowdown in wage growth.

Pekao attributed the wage surprise to a very strong result in manufacturing, which boosted the June reading by 0.5 percentage points.

Labour market data are certainly not an argument for the MPC to hold back future decisions on interest rate cuts.

mBank argued that wage growth has long ceased to feed into higher inflation. ING Bank Śląski said the data fit the picture of a cooling labour market, with fewer firms planning pay rises and weaker demand for labour limiting workers' bargaining power. ING expects wage growth to gradually approach 5% year-on-year.

Firms don't want to lay off workers because it's very hard to hire and train them later, but demand for labour is easing somewhat.

Adrian Domitrz of Erste Bank Polska pointed to low inflation and a modest 3% rise in the minimum wage this year as factors curbing pay pressures. PKO BP assessed that GDP growth likely accelerated slightly in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the first quarter, despite external shocks including the war in Iran and weak foreign demand.