Poland warns Russia is preparing hybrid drone and missile strikes against NATO allies

Parliamentary warning on hybrid strikes

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned lawmakers in Warsaw on 17 September 2026 that intelligence assessments indicate Russia is planning hybrid drone and missile strikes against NATO countries supporting Ukraine. Speaking in an unscheduled address to the Polish parliament, Tusk stated that Moscow intends to disguise potential strikes on NATO's eastern flank as accidental occurrences. The objective of such actions, according to Tusk, is to weaken the alliance's collective cohesion and test whether member states are prepared to invoke Article 5 mutual defense commitments.

According to intelligence assessments, Russia's plan includes hybrid drone and missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland.

Tusk noted that potential strikes would seek to convince Western capitals that collective defense guarantees are theoretical rather than practical. He stated that Moscow's approach aims to test whether alliance members would hesitate to act, while certain political groups in Europe might seize on claims of accidental impact to avoid committing to the defense of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia.

Border disruptions and air raid alerts

The parliamentary warning followed consecutive days of military alerts and airspace disruptions across eastern Poland. Polish aviation authorities temporarily closed airports in Rzeszow and Lublin for the second consecutive day on 17 September after detecting drone activity in the area. Emergency alert messages from the Government Security Centre reached residents in Lublin and Subcarpathia provinces, prompting sirens and sheltering in schools. Municipal workers and students in Rzeszow, situated approximately 100 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, evacuated municipal offices and classrooms during the warning.

There is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles could enter the territory of one or several NATO countries on the eastern flank and cause damage. And the official narrative will be that it was an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to consider any kind of NATO response.

Local disruptions also followed attacks near the Dorohusk-Yahodyn border crossing, where a petrol station was struck on the Ukrainian side. Tusk told lawmakers that Russian forces are expected to conduct high-intensity strikes on Ukrainian logistics and rail networks throughout the autumn and winter months, utilizing jet-powered drones.

Escalation across European airspace

The developments follow several cross-border security incidents reported across NATO's eastern flank and central Europe over recent months. In May 2026, two drones originating from Russia came down on Latvian territory. During the night of 4 to 5 August 2026, German security officials discovered an explosive-laden drone placed between Antonov cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle airport, an incident German authorities attributed to Russian intelligence services. On 13 September 2026, a Russian drone struck a passenger train in Ukraine two kilometres from the Polish border, near another train carrying former British prime minister Boris Johnson, former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt, former Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin, and Günter Sautter, foreign policy advisor to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Defensive and diplomatic measures

In response to increased aerial activity in western Ukraine, Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz stated that Poland has increased F-16 fighter jet and helicopter patrols while reinforcing rapid response air defense systems. The Polish military scrambled fighter aircraft on emergency missions on 15 September and the night of 16 September 2026. Before his speech to parliament, Tusk met with Austrian Chancellor Christian Stocker to discuss border security. Tusk is scheduled to travel to Ukraine on 18 September 2026 for a meeting that includes Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, as Poland continues to serve as the primary transit hub for Western supplies entering Ukraine.