Poland lowers 2027 defense spending plan to 198.1 billion PLN as GDP share drops to 4.51%

Planned reduction in 2027 defense allocations

The Polish government submitted its 2027 draft budget act to the Sejm following adoption by the Council of Ministers on 29 September 2026. The proposal allocates 198.1 billion PLN to defense, representing a nominal decline from the 200.1 billion PLN planned for 2026. Relative to projected gross domestic product, defense outlays will fall from 4.81% in 2026 to 4.51% in 2027, based on an assumed annual economic growth rate of approximately 4%. This adjustment is the first nominal reduction in aggregate planned defense outlays since the current financing framework took effect under the Homeland Defense Act in 2022.

Funding structure and EU SAFE loan facility

The 198.1 billion PLN total combines 131.730 billion PLN from the state budget with 66.285 billion PLN allocated via the Armed Forces Support Fund (FWSZ). Overall FWSZ expenditures for 2027 are projected at 77.665 billion PLN, with 4.723 billion PLN set aside for principal repayment and 6.647 billion PLN designated for interest, fees, and debt servicing. Approximately 69.2 billion PLN of new FWSZ revenues will come from borrowed debt. The dedicated allocation within the FWSZ for the Armed Forces technical modernization program decreases by 5.913 billion PLN from the 72.2 billion PLN planned in 2026.

Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told Rzeczpospolita that effective procurement value will remain higher because acquisitions financed through the European Union SAFE loan facility will be exempt from value-added tax. Meanwhile, ministry officials are reviewing agreements managed by the Armament Agency and the Armed Forces Support Inspectorate to determine whether payment schedules can be deferred by at least a year.

Political debate and presidential demands

President Karol Nawrocki addressed the military procurement plan during an appearance at the 1st Transport Aviation Base. He emphasized that equipment standards must remain high and called on the government to lift defense spending further.

Polish pilots deserve to use the best equipment in the world. And I am very glad that Poland is today approaching 5 percent of GDP for the development of the Polish Armed Forces.

Nawrocki declared that he will push the cabinet to achieve a 5% GDP target and modernize the military helicopter fleet. In contrast, former defense minister Mariusz Błaszczak publicly criticized the budget trajectory on social media, arguing that the reduction in FWSZ allocations weakens long-term capital investments.

Manpower limits and regional comparison

Błaszczak noted that the draft budget reduces statutory personnel limits across volunteer and reserve units. The legal ceiling for voluntary basic military service declines from 20,000 to 18,000 personnel, while the limit for the active reserve falls from 3,000 to 2,000. Funding for defense research and development decreases from 710 million PLN to 610 million PLN, a 14.8% reduction, alongside a cut in military higher education spending from 1.58 billion PLN to 1.34 billion PLN.

Real spending and the capabilities we build are not a percentage of GDP, but concrete numbers, concrete figures, and concrete armament.

In 2025, Poland committed the highest proportion of GDP to defense in NATO at roughly 4.3%. Projections indicate that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia will surpass Poland in relative spending in 2026, with Lithuania and Estonia targeting 5% in 2027. Defense analyst Juliusz Sabak noted that ongoing procurement contracts remain protected despite the shift in relative rankings, while retired general Roman Polko stated that higher Baltic defense spending strengthens regional security across the alliance.