PiS support plunges to 16.9% as Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus debuts at 7.8% in first post-split poll

Poll results

The IBRiS survey, conducted by telephone (CATI) on a sample of 1,000 Poles between 29 July and 2 August for Polsat News, shows Civic Coalition (KO) in first place with 27.5%, a 0.5-point slip from June. Law and Justice (PiS) recorded 16.9%, a drop of 7.2 percentage points compared with the previous month, leaving it just 2.5 points ahead of third-placed Confederation (Konfederacja) at 14.4% (up 0.7 points). Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP) would win 9.4% (up 0.4 points), while the New Left (Nowa Lewica) fell to 7.6% (down 0.6 points). Three parties would miss the 5% parliamentary threshold: the Polish People's Party (PSL) at 4%, Together (Razem) at 2.3%, and Poland 2050 at 1.4%. Both Razem and Poland 2050 also fell short of the 3% threshold required for state funding. The share of undecided voters stood at 8.8%, and estimated turnout was 64.4%.

Rozwój Plus makes its debut

The poll is the first to include Mateusz Morawiecki's new formation, Rozwój Plus, which currently operates as an association but is widely expected to become a political party. It scored 7.8%, comfortably above the 5% threshold, and would send MPs to the Sejm. The survey was fielded after Morawiecki left PiS with more than 40 MPs and senators, formed a parliamentary club, and held a programmatic gathering in Warsaw dubbed the "Morawiecki grill". When asked directly whether they would vote for Rozwój Plus if it contested elections, 21% of respondents said yes (5.6% "definitely yes", 15.4% "rather yes").

The second-choice landscape

Rozwój Plus also emerged as the most popular "second choice" party. Among all respondents, 17.5% said they would vote for it if their first-choice party did not run. That figure rises to 40.6% among PiS voters, underlining the threat the new grouping poses to Jarosław Kaczyński's party. The New Left was the second choice for 16.5% of respondents (including 40.1% of KO voters), and Confederation for 16.2% (20.2% of PiS voters).

PiS pushes back

PiS spokesman Rafał Bochenek dismissed the findings, accusing unnamed actors of launching a "game with polls" to legitimise the split and give its architects false hope.

A game with polls has begun, aimed at justifying the split and giving its authors false hope.

He added that the exercise played into the hands of Donald Tusk, whose Civic Coalition leads the survey.