Over 1,000 ships blocked as Strait of Hormuz traffic edges back to a third of normal after US-Iran MOU, Iran and Oman discuss future fees

Ceasefire and traffic restart

Exactly one week after Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war, ship tracking data shows a cautious return to the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler records at least 36 raw-material carriers crossing on Monday, the busiest day since hostilities began on 28 February, while AXSMarine puts the total, including container vessels, at 42. Before the war, an average of 120 to 138 commercial ships transited daily; the current flow represents roughly a third of that norm. The main route remains mined, so ships are using the narrower northern lane inside Iranian waters and the southern lane inside Omani waters.

Massive backlog of blocked ships

Despite the progress, the sea is still holding hostage a huge fleet. Allianz estimates that more than 1,000 vessels are stuck in the Gulf, with their hulls and cargoes valued at around $125 billion. The World Shipping Council says the figure may be between 1,500 and 3,000 ships carrying close to 20,000 seafarers, although pinpointing an exact number is hard because of rampant GPS spoofing in the area. 46 attacks on commercial ships have been logged since the conflict started, the last physical attack recorded on 10 June.

“Maritime trade is hostage to the conflict.”

“The immediate priority is ensuring the safety of the seafarers and ships that are still stranded in the zone.”

Oil market impact

About a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes through the Strait. Oil prices fell 2 percent on Monday, and US President Donald Trump claimed that 19 million barrels left the strait in one day, calling it a record. However, the market remains fragile. Kpler warns that caution is still warranted because de-mining is incomplete and many ships continue to use secret or Iranian-controlled routes.

“Yesterday, 19 million barrels of oil left the Strait of Hormuz, an absolute record. Oil prices are collapsing and the world is much safer!”

Iran and Oman assert sovereignty, discuss fees

On Tuesday, Iran and Oman announced a joint working group to examine the future administration of the Strait and the costs associated with maritime services. A joint statement underscored the two states’ sovereignty over their territorial waters, while Oman’s foreign minister posted that both sides were committed to “toll-free safe passage”. The MOU signed with the US bars Iran from charging any fees for 60 days, but Tehran has already established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and insists it will eventually levy what it calls maritime service fees, not tolls.

“The administration of the strait will never return to what it was before the war. Iran will administer it.”

Conflicting signals on security

Two days before the traffic surge, Iran had announced a fresh closure of the strait following clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but US Vice President JD Vance said there were no indications that Iran had actually re-blocked it. The US and Iran are now in talks in Switzerland, though the diplomacy is described as fragile. Allianz cautions that even if sailing conditions normalize, it will take weeks to clear the backlog of stranded tonnage.