Orlen warns Polish gas tariffs may rise in 2027 if European wholesale prices persist

Tariff application outlook

Polish energy group Orlen has initiated the annual tariff coordination process with the Energy Regulatory Office (URE) for 2027, cautioning that household gas rates may increase if wholesale prices on European exchanges remain elevated. Speaking at a meeting of the parliamentary Committee on Energy, Climate and State Assets on Tuesday, 6 October 2026, Orlen vice president Robert Soszyński explained that the company's retail division, MyOrlen (formerly PGNiG Obrót Detaliczny), is required by law to agree its consumer supply tariffs with the regulator each year. Soszyński emphasized that Orlen cannot currently determine whether the tariff will rise or what the magnitude of any potential increase would be, as market conditions across the next three months will determine the final filing.

If prices over the next three months remain as they are right now or higher on European markets, then the final application to the URE will certainly point to a price increase.

Regulatory framework and timeline

Orlen expects to formulate a precise tariff proposal by late November or December 2026 once autumn market trends become clear. Under the Polish regulatory framework, household natural gas tariffs are strictly supervised by the URE. Energy suppliers must submit detailed tariff applications containing cost justifications, which the regulator examines to ensure prices are justified and consumers are shielded from excessive charges, while simultaneously maintaining the financial viability of suppliers. Approved tariffs enter into force only after formal endorsement by the president of the URE and official publication in the sector bulletin. Even during past energy crises when statutory price freezes or price caps were enacted, the URE remained the supervisory body validating supplier settlements and base tariffs.

As for what will happen with the tariff, MyOrlen has an obligation to agree the tariff with URE every year. Whether the tariff for next year will ultimately be higher and by how much compared to now, we cannot answer this question right now because we are unable to determine that today.

European wholesale prices and low storage reserves

The prospect of higher retail tariffs reflects ongoing volatility in European wholesale gas trading. Benchmark natural gas futures in Amsterdam traded up to 74.80 euro per megawatt-hour on the morning of 6 October 2026, with prices moving between 70 and 75 euro per megawatt-hour. Market concern stems largely from below-average storage levels ahead of the winter heating season. Calculations from Gas Infrastructure Europe indicate that European Union underground gas storage facilities held 819.88 terawatt-hours of fuel, representing 72.4% of total capacity compared to the five-year seasonal average of 87.7%. In Germany, storage facilities stood at 58.7% capacity against a five-year average of 86.1%.

Global supply bottlenecks and Russian import ban

Multiple international supply pressures are constraining available natural gas volumes across Europe. The ongoing confrontation between the United States and Iran has disrupted global oil and natural gas shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Market analysts warn that without a lasting diplomatic resolution to the standoff in the strait, Europe faces sustained energy cost increases that will affect both commercial enterprises and households. At the same time, European utilities must compete with Asian markets for liquefied natural gas supplies following record summer heat in Asia. In addition, new European Union regulations coming into effect at the start of 2027 will end all remaining natural gas imports from Russia, eliminating an estimated 12% of total European supply.