Brent crude tops $90 for first time since June as US strikes Iran for ninth night and Hormuz tankers intercepted

Price surge

Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged past $90 a barrel on Monday for the first time since 11 June. In early Asian trading, the September contract jumped as much as 6% to over $90, later settling at $90.90 by 9:10 GMT, a 3.18% daily gain, after touching an overnight peak of $91.42. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, rose 2.72% to $84.73, having earlier hit $85.39, its highest since 12 June. The July rally has lifted Brent by nearly a quarter, the steepest monthly advance since the conflict with Iran began on 28 February.

Strait of Hormuz blockade

The immediate trigger was Iran's interception of two tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz without what Tehran called authorization. The Revolutionary Guards announced the seizures on state television, while the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a vessel on fire 8 nautical miles northwest of the Omani village of Kumzar. The strait, through which a fifth of global hydrocarbon trade flowed before the war, is again locked down by the Islamic Republic, and Washington has reimposed its blockade of Iranian ports in response.

Military escalation

The United States carried out its ninth consecutive night of airstrikes against Iran, targeting command centres and communication networks. President Donald Trump said, "We hit them very hard again tonight." At least three American soldiers have been killed since Friday in Iranian attacks, according to the US military. Tehran retaliated with fresh strikes in the Gulf, and Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the conflict has clearly intensified, with the latest wave of mutual attacks illustrating how quickly the situation is deteriorating.

We hit them very hard again tonight.

The conflict in the Middle East has clearly intensified, and the latest wave of mutual attacks illustrates how quickly the situation is deteriorating.

Collapse of peace hopes

The surge marks a sharp reversal from mid-June, when a protocol agreement signed on 17 June had raised hopes of a diplomatic resolution and pushed Brent below $90. That truce has now been "torpedoed," as Les Echos put it, with the resumption of US bombing and Iranian reprisals. Markets have definitively abandoned expectations of a lasting peace, and the risk premium embedded in crude prices has returned.

Fuel prices and Russia factor

In France, the pump price of diesel has again exceeded €2 per litre, while SP95-E10 petrol reached €1.97. The rise is not solely due to Middle Eastern tensions. On 8 July, Russia, a major diesel exporter, banned shipments to address domestic shortages caused by Ukrainian strikes on its refineries. Olivier Appert, an adviser at the Ifri Energy and Climate Centre, said the Middle East remains the dominant driver, but the Russian move has added upward pressure.

Market dynamics

Patrice Geoffron, director of the Centre de Géopolitique de l'Énergie et des Matières Premières, warned that oil markets are pricing not only actual supply losses but also the risk of future disruptions, amplifying price moves. He said the increase is amplified by the anticipation of the worst-case scenario and can prove temporarily excessive when the extreme scenario does not materialise. A stabilisation is possible if maritime traffic normalises and no major infrastructure is hit, but with bellicose rhetoric from both sides, the outlook remains uncertain.