Brent crude drops below $92 after weekend ceasefire in US-Iran conflict

Oil prices plunge on ceasefire hopes

On Monday 27 July 2026, crude oil prices fell sharply in early Asian trading after a weekend pause in the two-week exchange of attacks between the United States and Iran. Brent crude futures dropped over 6% to $92 a barrel at 07:15 Greek time, according to NewsIT, having briefly dipped below the $90 support level earlier in the session. Other Greek outlets reported a 5.58% decline to $91.38. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell more than 5%, trading at $85 (NewsIT) or $84.43. Both benchmarks hit their lowest levels in a week, retreating from the surge that had pushed Brent to $100 during the hostilities. The decline marked a sharp reversal from the upward trend that had dominated during the two-week conflict.

Two nights without strikes

The sell-off followed two consecutive nights without US bombings on Iran and Iranian retaliation. The pause, after a fortnight of escalating tit-for-tat strikes, raised hopes that Washington and Tehran might return to negotiations. Investors appeared relieved that the suspension could open the door to a diplomatic resolution, though no formal ceasefire agreement was announced. The prior attacks had intensified fears of a broader conflict that would further disrupt Middle East oil supplies.

Chokepoint disruption

The conflict had choked shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil transit point, and extended into the Red Sea. That secondary front hindered exports from Saudi Arabia, the largest global exporter, via the Bab el-Mandeb strait to Asian markets. The Bab el-Mandeb strait, a vital corridor for Saudi crude shipments to Asia, saw reduced traffic as the conflict spread. The narrowing of these key routes added a substantial risk premium to crude prices, helping drive Brent to $100 a barrel before the weekend lull. The disruption showed the vulnerability of global energy flows to geopolitical flare-ups in the region.

Trump keeps up threats

Despite the pause, US President Donald Trump continued to threaten Iran with bombings and further hostilities, NewsIT reported. The mixed signals kept markets cautious even as prices retreated. The president's rhetoric indicated that military options remained on the table and that the lull might be temporary.

Market reaction and outlook

Both Brent and WTI traded near their weekly lows on Monday morning, reflecting relief that immediate supply risks had eased. However, traders remained wary of a fragile truce, and a full resumption of shipping through Hormuz would be needed to sustain lower prices. The earlier run-up had been fueled by fears of prolonged disruption to Middle East oil exports. The rapid price drop indicated that markets had priced in a significant supply disruption premium, which began to unwind as soon as the attacks paused. With no formal deal in place, the market was watching for any sign of renewed attacks or diplomatic progress.