Pentagon set to cancel Tomahawk deployment to Germany, fearing Russian escalation and depleted arsenals

The original agreement hedges against Moscow

In 2024, the Biden administration and then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that from 2026 the US would station long-range precision weapons, including Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range over 1,600 kilometres, in Germany. The move was meant to fill a deterrence gap until European allies could field similar systems. For German leaders, those weapons are now seen as urgently needed.

Two fears derail the plan

US officials are concerned that placing the missiles in the heart of Europe would be read by the Kremlin as an unacceptable provocation and could trigger retaliation, according to two European and one American source. At the same time, the Pentagon’s own shelves are thinning. The Iran conflict consumed thousands of Tomahawk and Patriot missiles in its opening weeks. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Congress last month that replenishing the munitions will take “months and years”.

The Americans don’t have enough for themselves right now.

Part of a broader NATO pullback

The decision is the latest in a string of US steps away from the alliance. This spring, the Pentagon cancelled the planned deployment of 5,000 soldiers to Germany, and it has outlined plans to reduce fighter squadrons, drones and naval assets in Europe. General Alexus Grynkewich, commander of US forces in Europe and NATO’s top military officer, told allied leaders this week that Europe must assume primary responsibility for conventional defence while the US reorients its troops and equipment.

Europe can take on more now, and the US will reorient forces.

Berlin scrambles for alternatives

Faced with a potential gap, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius is exploring fallback options. Berlin is negotiating directly with Washington to buy Typhon launchers and about 400 Tomahawk missiles. In parallel, Germany participates in the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA), but its missiles will not be ready until the 2030s. One shorter-term avenue is cooperating with Ukraine on long-range suicide drones, which are cheaper and could arrive sooner, though they lack the punch of cruise missiles.

German deterrence planners are thus left racing against time, as the US signals it will no longer serve as the continent’s automatic heavy arsenal.