Nato leaders head to Ankara to cement 5% defence spending goal and manage Trump anxiety
The alliance's 32 leaders meet in Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday to show progress toward the 5% GDP defence target, as Donald Trump's commitment to collective security remains in doubt.
Nato's annual summit opens in Ankara on 7 July under the shadow of a US president who has called the alliance a "paper tiger" and threatened to pull back. The 32 allies have already approved a final declaration with the motto "a stronger Europe in a stronger NATO", but the real test is whether they can convince Donald Trump that Europe is serious about spending 5% of GDP on defence.
The spending push
Non-US members spent $139bn more in 2025 than in 2024, and the summit is designed to showcase further progress. A transatlantic defence industry forum on Tuesday will announce billions in contracts, a spectacle aimed at the US president. Yet several allies, including France and the UK, lack a credible pathway to the 5% target, and the 2027 summit in Tirana is already in doubt because Albania has not reached even 2%.
Trump's shadow
Secretary General Mark Rutte has shortened the main North Atlantic Council session to just two or three hours to limit the risk of a public clash. The US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, has threatened to withhold American dues and to adjust the US force posture based on who spends what rather than military need.I have never been convinced by NATO. I have always known it was a paper tiger and Putin knows it too.
Europe prepares to go it alone
The source added that the transition would be "chaotic" because the Trump administration is incapable of proceeding otherwise. The final declaration reaffirms the Article 5 commitment, but confidence that Washington would honour it has cratered.There is now a deep-seated awareness that if Russia ever really attacks, we will have to manage on our own.
Turkey's arms agenda
Host president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan intends to use the summit to break through resistance to major weapons deals. A $700m sale of 80 GE F-110 engines for Turkey's Kaan fighter jet is expected to be signed, with Trump using executive power to bypass congressional roadblocks. Ankara also hopes to overcome Germany's block on 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets.
The NATO summit will be a good instrument for Erdogan to show Turkish domestic politics, as well as international politics, that he is one of the medium-power leaders in the world with whom you have to deal.
The administration is eager to deliver something to Erdogan.
Summit timetable
- 32 NATO ambassadors approve final declaration with 'stronger Europe in a stronger NATO' motto.
- Transatlantic defence industry forum opens, billions in contracts expected.
- Leaders' dinner at presidential palace, with Ukrainian President Zelensky as guest.
- North Atlantic Council summit meeting, limited to 2-3 hours to minimise risk of clashes.
The leaders' dinner on Tuesday evening at the presidential palace will include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Parallel dinners for foreign and defence ministers will bring in Gulf states and Asia-Pacific partners. The summit proper on Wednesday is designed to be as brief as possible, reflecting the allies' nervousness about Trump's unpredictability.
