Moody's cuts Poland credit rating to A3 on persistent deficits and rising public debt

Rating downgrade and fiscal metrics

On 18 September 2026, Moody's Ratings lowered Poland's long-term foreign-currency credit rating by one step from A2 to A3, placing it at the fourth-lowest investment grade. The agency revised its outlook on the country from negative to stable, aligning its score with existing assessments from S&P and Fitch. In its decision, Moody's cited expectations of lasting deterioration in Poland's fiscal strength relative to its prior assessment in September 2025, pointing to heavy borrowing requirements and climbing interest costs that weaken debt affordability metrics.

The agency projected that the general government deficit will remain around 7% of GDP in both 2026 and 2027. Sustained fiscal deficits will be driven by high defense expenditure, increasing healthcare expenses, extensive public investments, and social spending obligations. Moody's also projected that general government debt will grow from 59.7% of GDP in 2025 to 68.9% of GDP in 2027. It noted that the domestic fiscal framework has weakened because an expanding portion of public debt is generated outside national debt rules.

202559.7

202768.9

2025

59.7 % of GDP

2027

68.9 % of GDP

Data from the article text

Executive dispute and political fallout

Finance and Economy Minister Andrzej Domański stated that the government approaches the evaluation with composure, maintaining that economic fundamentals remain solid despite the downgrade.

“We will consistently strengthen public finances, but this requires the cooperation of all state institutions, including the President.”

The evaluation prompted direct disputes between government officials and the presidential administration. Jan Grabiec, head of the Prime Minister's Chancellery, attributed the downgrade to legislative blockades by President Karol Nawrocki, pointing specifically to blocked bills such as a proposed windfall tax on fuel corporations. Presidential minister Marcin Przydacz rejected the claim, asserting that the cabinet bears responsibility for fiscal expansion, rising debt servicing costs, and budget management since taking office.

“Obniżenie ratingu to efekt waszej nieudolności i złodziejstwa. Budżet w rozsypce, deficyt rośnie, dług publiczny rośnie, rosną koszty obsługi długu.”

Opposition reactions and market analysis

Lawmakers across parliamentary factions also issued conflicting statements following the release. Civic Coalition MP Roman Giertych argued that primary responsibility lay with National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński and the Monetary Policy Council, repeating calls to bring Glapiński before the State Tribunal. Deputy Sejm Marshal Krzysztof Bosak of Confederation criticized the cabinet for expanding expenditures and debt past constitutional thresholds without consulting opposition leaders. Former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Law and Justice candidate Przemysław Czarnek also criticized the government's fiscal trajectory.

20267

20277

2026

7 % of GDP

2027

7 % of GDP

Data from the article text

Economists noted that financial markets had already anticipated the rating adjustment. Rafał Benecki, chief economist at ING Bank Śląski, stated that domestic and international investors had previously priced in fiscal deterioration, noting reduced participation by foreign investors and wide spreads between bond yields and interest rate swaps. Economist Piotr Arak stated that the broader fiscal trend requires attention as budgetary pressures mount.

“Let's get ourselves together, because the situation will become increasingly serious.”