Middle East crude exports exceed pre-war levels despite Iranian tanker strikes

Rebound in regional crude flows

Middle East crude oil exports outside Iran exceeded pre-conflict averages during the final week of September, according to maritime data tracker Kpler. On 1 October, the seven-day export average reached 18.5 million barrels per day, compared to the pre-war baseline of 18 million barrels per day. Regional shipments surpassed pre-conflict levels on four out of seven days in late September, having previously recorded rates of at least 16.5 million barrels per day earlier that month. By contrast, preliminary ship-tracking data showed zero crude loadings from Iranian terminals in September. Tehran faces a naval blockade of its ports enforced by the United States following strikes launched by Washington and Israel in late February. On Sunday, 4 October, Iran's oil minister resigned for personal reasons as the country experienced domestic fuel shortages and retail petrol queues.

Pipeline alternatives and transit tactics

Gulf producers restored output deliveries by rerouting crude away from the Strait of Hormuz, where one-fifth of global oil supply passed before the war. Saudi Arabia directed supplies westward to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, while Yemen's Houthi movement claimed strikes against Saudi oil facilities. The United Arab Emirates utilized its overland pipeline to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, which operates at a capacity of 1.8 million barrels per day, alongside a planned $4 billion second pipeline intended to double throughput in 2027. Tankers continuing to use the strait operated at night with transponders and navigation lights switched off to avoid Iranian coastal radars. The United States administration stated that its navy facilitated these passage corridors after previous strikes damaged Iranian radar and communications installations.

Iranian retaliation against tankers

Tehran responded to rising transit traffic by initiating attacks on commercial shipping. Iranian forces attacked at least eight vessels during the first week of October, while at least seven maritime security incidents had been logged since 28 September. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued radio warnings to maritime traffic, instructing crews not to use the southern corridor under threat of attack. On 5 October, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a tanker reversed course near Oman after IRGC forces ordered it to turn back. Rory Johnston, founder of research firm Commodity Context, estimated that regional deliveries fell by 2 million to 3 million barrels per day after the renewed strikes.

It was never sustainable and it cost a lot.

Market reaction and pump prices

Crude benchmark prices eased slightly on 5 October, with Brent falling 0.79% to $101.44 per barrel at 03:10 GMT and West Texas Intermediate dropping 1.2% to $90.02 per barrel. However, retail consumers saw little relief at filling stations in France, Germany, Switzerland, and the United States. Freight costs across the Strait of Hormuz reached five times pre-war levels, driven by extended maritime transfers and war risk premiums. In France, diesel averaged 2.38 euros per liter and petrol averaged 2.17 euros per liter on 5 October. To stabilize supplies, G7 economies announced a release of 100 million barrels over four months, adding to 325 million barrels already disbursed from a 400 million barrel reserve plan initiated in March.

Off the Gulf of Oman, they do ship-to-ship oil transfers, which takes time, which immobilizes many ships. And because of that, we have had a real explosion in maritime freight rates.