In brief
ND stands at 30% on the vote estimate, 15 points ahead of ELAS at 15% and 17 points ahead of PASOK at 13%, according to the Metron Analysis survey conducted 14 to 20 October.
67% rate the government negatively against 28% positively, and 65% rate Mitsotakis negatively against 31% positively.
65% say the country is heading in the wrong direction and 49% say their personal situation is worse than a year ago.
On vote intention, ELAS dropped to 12.4% from 13.1% while PASOK rose to 10.8% from 10.5%, narrowing the gap to 1.6 points from 2.6 points in September.
Vote estimate and vote intention
The Metron Analysis survey for MEGA, carried out from 14 to 20 October among 1,300 people with a margin of error of ±2.7%, puts New Democracy (ND) first on the vote estimate with 30%. Alexis Tsipras's Greek Left Alliance (ΕΛ.Α.Σ, ELAS) is second on 15%, and PASOK is third on 13%. Elliniki Lysi stands at 6.2%, the KKE at 5.8%, Plefsi Eleftherias at 5.7% and Foni Logikis at 5.3%. SYRIZA (1.7%) and NIKI (1.5%) are below the parliamentary entry threshold.
On vote intention, before the projection used to estimate the election result, ND stands at 24.9%, down from 25.1% in September. ELAS fell to 12.4% from 13.1%, while PASOK rose to 10.8% from 10.5%. The gap between ELAS and PASOK narrowed to 1.6 points from 2.6 points in September. Undecided voters make up 8.5%, and undecided or unspecified voting totals 11.6%.
- New Democracy
- 30 %
- ELAS
- 15 %
- PASOK
- 13 %
- Elliniki Lysi
- 6.2 %
- KKE
- 5.8 %
- Plefsi Eleftherias
- 5.7 %
- Foni Logikis
- 5.3 %
- Elpida gia ti Dimokratia
- 4 %
- MeRA25
- 3 %
- SYRIZA
- 1.7 %
- NIKI
- 1.5 %
Data from the article text
Leaders and the prime ministership
Kyriakos Mitsotakis remains the most suitable prime minister at 28%, down two points, against 12% for Alexis Tsipras, who lost one point. Nikos Androulakis is on 6%, Zoe Konstantopoulou on 5%, Kyriakos Velopoulos on 4% and Maria Karystianou on 3%. Twenty-six per cent of respondents volunteer 'nobody' for the post, only two points below Mitsotakis. Androulakis improved his personal rating by two points but is only one point ahead of Konstantopoulou.
- Kyriakos Mitsotakis
- 28 %
- Alexis Tsipras
- 12 %
- Nikos Androulakis
- 6 %
- Zoe Konstantopoulou
- 5 %
- Kyriakos Velopoulos
- 4 %
- Maria Karystianou
- 3 %
Data from the article text
Government and prime minister ratings
Sixty-seven per cent rate the government negatively, up from 66% in September, while 28% rate it positively, down from 29%. Mitsotakis's performance in office is rated negatively by 65% and positively by 31%, and his positive rating has not moved since June. The economy is the weakest area, with 15% positive and 77% negative ratings, and democracy and institutions get 19% positive and 71% negative. Geopolitics and international relations fare better, with 36% positive and 47% negative.
Mood of the electorate
Sixty-five per cent say the country is heading in the wrong direction, against 30% who say it is on the right track. Forty-nine per cent say their personal situation is worse than a year ago, 35% say it is unchanged and 15% say it has improved. Prices are the top concern, named by 52% of respondents, up from 51.5% in September, followed by the economy at 34% and the crisis of institutions at 15%.
Opposition, parties and voter flows
PASOK's positive image as official opposition rose to 16% from 12% in September. Even so, 76% rate the party negatively in that role, and 74% rate Androulakis negatively in how he performs his duties. PASOK keeps 79.7% of its 2023 voters, while ND keeps 68%. About 11.5% of PASOK's 2023 voters now back ELAS and 4.3% back ND. ELAS draws 60.8% of SYRIZA's 2023 voters, and PASOK draws 8.4% of them.
Outlook
Asked whether a government would be formed after the next election, 69% say a second round of elections would be needed. On a possible party led by Antonis Samaras, 67% say they are unlikely to vote for it.