Right-wing rupture hands Andy Burnham a clear line to Downing Street in Makerfield byelection

The stakes in Makerfield

A single by‑election in a northern English constituency on Thursday will determine whether Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham can launch an immediate leadership challenge against prime minister Keir Starmer. Labour’s sitting MP Josh Simons resigned last month to let Burnham contest the seat, the only route into parliament and thus to No 10. If Burnham wins, he has already confirmed he will trigger a leadership contest, a move that could topple Starmer less than two years after Labour ended 14 years of Conservative rule.

The result will be felt far beyond the 77,000 voters of Makerfield. “The whole thing is fucking bonkers,” comedian John Oliver told his audience on Sunday, as polls showed Burnham’s path being cleared by an unlikely source.

A splintered right

The populist right‑wing vote that might otherwise have backed Reform UK candidate Rob Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor, is being drained by Restore Britain, the party founded by Rupert Lowe after an acrimonious split with Reform leader Nigel Farage last year. Restore’s candidate, businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd, has been barely visible on the campaign trail, yet her party’s placards are ubiquitous across the constituency. Polls suggest she could take 7–8 % of the vote, enough to leave Reform short of victory in what Farage still insists is a “two‑horse race.”

All my voting life there’s only been two parties that have run this country, Labour and Conservatives. Look around you, it’s a mess… If it was a straightforward fight, I think Reform may well edge it but because there’s that many parties that you can vote for now, I think it will swing it to Labour’s advantage, unfortunately.

Burnham’s American playbook

Burnham’s ambition is rooted in a 2017 trip to New York, when he and Liverpool City Region mayor Steve Rotheram attended a Bloomberg‑funded Harvard leadership programme for mayors. Meeting American city leaders, Burnham later wrote, showed him mayors could have “gravitas.” He has stayed in contact with Michael Bloomberg and former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, cultivating a profile that now positions him as the Labour alternative to Starmer’s flagging premiership.

Some of the things that we wanted to do, these mayors were already doing it … [we learned] you can go outside of the boundaries of the constitution and the rigid strictures of what a Tory government believed the mayors were for.

Media circus in a small town

Ashton‑in‑Makerfield, the constituency’s main urban centre, has hosted news crews from CNN, Bloomberg, Swiss and Swedish television. “I mean here we’ve had CNN, we’ve had Bloomberg, Swiss news, Swedish news – they’ve all been. It’s bizarre,” said local newsagent Steve Broadhurst. Some residents, however, are growing weary; one newspaper team struggled to find anyone willing to talk after weeks of relentless attention. Long‑time resident Connie Collier has meanwhile alerted relatives in Australia to watch for her on their evening bulletins.

I mean here we’ve had CNN, we’ve had Bloomberg, Swiss news, Swedish news – they’ve all been. It’s bizarre.

What comes next

Polls give Labour a lead of between five and twelve points over Reform, but single‑constituency surveys carry large margins of error. If Burnham wins, the party faces a swift and divisive leadership contest at a time when Starmer’s authority has already been eroded by the loss of more than 1,400 council seats in May and the resignation of defence secretary John Healey. A victory for Reform would keep Burnham outside parliament and buy Starmer precious time, though it would also strengthen Farage’s claim to be the government’s most potent opponent.