Makerfield by-election preview: Burnham leads as Starmer's future hangs in balance

The contest

Voters in Makerfield go to the polls on Thursday to fill a vacant Commons seat in a by-election freighted with national consequences. Labour has selected Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, a figure with ministerial experience and strong regional recognition, while Reform UK is running councillor Robert Kenyon. Restore Britain, the breakaway party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, is also fielding candidate Rebecca Shepherd. If Burnham wins, he returns to parliament and can immediately trigger a Labour leadership contest against Keir Starmer, who is attending the G7 summit in France and has said he intends to stay in post.

Candidate controversies

The Reform campaign has been buffeted by the resurfacing of Kenyon’s old social media posts. Comments on a rugby league forum and a now-deleted X account included the claim that women cannot "ref, drive or give directions" and a sexually explicit post directed at TV presenter Carol Vorderman. Reform has dismissed the remarks as "locker room banter", but Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, called Kenyon "Nigel Farage's sexist puppet" and told the Unison conference:

A choice between Andy Burnham and Nigel Farage's sexist puppet. It is a fight that we must win.

Kenyon has not apologised.

Tactical dynamics

Electoral arithmetic is being shaped by asymmetrical tactical voting. The Guardian reports that more than half of Green and Liberal Democrat identifiers say they will lend their votes to Burnham in the by-election, while only about a third of Restore Britain supporters say they would switch to Reform. Combined, the Green and Lib Dem share in the constituency at the last general election was 11.5%, a figure well above Burnham’s projected margin. Professor Rob Ford of the University of Manchester summarised the logic:

You're not going to get a Green MP in Makerfield, you're not going to get a Lib Dem MP in Makerfield. So it's really obvious what you've got to do.

On the right, the fragmentation does not help Reform: a Reform UK board member told The Independent that Restore’s vote is "extremely soft" and Reform lacks the operational machinery to squeeze it.

Internal projections

Internal data collated by Reform and seen by The Independent gives Burnham a five-point lead, translating to roughly 45.5% of the vote against 41% for Kenyon and 5% for Shepherd. The same source said the margin could widen to eight points, while Reform briefings to other outlets claim a two-point gap. The Reform insider noted that Burnham is drawing out 2024 Labour voters who did not turn out in 2026 and is also attracting Conservative, Green and Lib Dem switchers. Women voters who backed Reform in 2026 are seen as a vulnerability for Kenyon after the sexism allegations.

Labour (Burnham)

45.5

Reform UK (Kenyon)

41

Restore Britain (Shepherd)

5

Labour (Burnham)

45.5 %

Reform UK (Kenyon)

41 %

Restore Britain (Shepherd)

5 %

Leadership horizon

Wes Streeting, the former health secretary who has also declared an intention to run for the leadership, used a central London speech to urge Starmer to set a departure timetable once Thursday’s result is known.

I would hope that after Thursday's by-election, when the results are in... the prime minister will at that stage reflect on his own position and set out a timetable.

Streeting claimed he already has the backing of the necessary 81 MPs and said "for the avoidance of doubt, there will be a contest". Starmer repeated at the G7 that he will not walk away. If Burnham enters parliament, the party faces a leadership race in which the two declared contenders have so far avoided spending pledges but are already shaping their pitches to MPs and members.