Lula's data offer and counter-challenge

Speaking at a rally in Porto Alegre, Lula said he would authorize the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to access his bank and telephone data, along with that of his closest relatives, including his five children. He tied the move to the corruption accusations the two candidates traded in their last televised debate, and called the 25 October runoff his 'last electoral competition'. He then asked Flávio Bolsonaro to open the bank and phone records of his companies and family. Lula said he wanted to know where 134 million reais (about 23 million euros) linked to Banco Master had gone, and how a villa in Brasilia bought by Flávio's son could be paid for on a salary equal to his own.

“Have the courage to prove you are honest.”

A debate built on insults

The debate, broadcast by Band from São Paulo on 18 October, was the first direct confrontation between the two men, who had skipped the first-round debates. According to Correio da Manhã, the exchange was dominated by personal attacks rather than policy, with Lula calling his rival a 'liar' and a 'clown' and Flávio calling Lula a 'thief' and 'corrupt'. Lula also linked Flávio to militias accused of killing councillor Marielle Franco in 2018, while Flávio accused the president of shielding the PCC and Comando Vermelho gangs. On health, Lula cited 716,000 Covid-19 deaths during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, and Flávio conceded that his father's government had not performed as hoped in that area.

Flávio's 'corrupto' palm stunt backfired on social media, where viewers mocked it and Lula supporters posted photos of their own professions written on their palms. James Bosworth, a Latin America expert, wrote on Substack that the gesture was a 'critical error'.

“It may have seemed like an inspired pre-debate gimmick. Instead, he gave the world a meme image that will stick with him for the rest of his political career.”

Political analysts interviewed by BBC News Brasil described the debate as chaotic and said it would have little effect on votes, possibly encouraging abstention and blank or null ballots.

Polls point to a near tie

PoderData projects 50% support for each candidate, while three polls from the previous week showed a razor-thin lead for Bolsonaro. The latest surveys show substantial parity, with undecided, blank and null voters at around 8%. Flávio won the first round on 4 October with 47% to Lula's 45%, and polls the following week gave him a lead of up to six points. Lula then regained momentum through nationwide mass rallies and a stronger social media presence, while Flávio, who had scaled back street campaigning, is now mobilizing supporters again. In 2022, Lula won with 50.9% against Jair Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro47%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva45%

Flávio Bolsonaro

47 %

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

45 %

Data from the article text

A polarized country and nervous markets

Bloomberg Business reports that traders are ramping up hedges on the real ahead of the runoff. The rivalry has shaped Brazilian politics for a decade. Jair Bolsonaro rose to prominence during the 2016 impeachment of Dilma Rousseff and won the 2018 election while Lula was jailed on corruption charges. Those convictions were later overturned, and Lula returned in 2022. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup. Lula has repeatedly demanded explanations from Flávio over a corruption investigation tied to financing a film about his father, which Flávio has refused to answer.

“The divide between Lula and Bolsonarism has paralyzed Brazilian politics, and anything that didn't belong to one pole or the other has disappeared.”

Nogueira, a political scientist, told DW that social media algorithms feed this polarization.