Marine Le Pen awaits appeal verdict that will decide her 2027 presidential bid

The stakes

France is braced for a court ruling on Tuesday that will determine whether Marine Le Pen can stand in next year's presidential election. The 57-year-old National Rally (RN) leader is the frontrunner in opinion polls, but the Paris appeal court may uphold a five-year ban from public office imposed after her 2025 conviction for misusing European Parliament funds. If she is barred, the RN's candidate would automatically become Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old party chairman, who also polls strongly but whose youth and inexperience could become a factor during the campaign.

Because of the presidential election, the decision you must render is of dizzying significance.

The original conviction and appeal

In March 2025, Le Pen was found guilty of presiding over a system in which RN staff in Paris were paid as EU parliamentary assistants, draining funds from Brussels at a time when the party was short of money. She was sentenced to four years in prison (two suspended, two under house arrest with an electronic tag), fined €100,000, and declared ineligible for public office for five years with immediate effect. The ineligibility was not suspended pending appeal, prompting Le Pen to storm out of the courtroom and denounce the verdict as a "political decision" aimed at derailing her presidential bid.

Ten other RN officials are also appealing their convictions. An acquittal is considered unlikely because several related verdicts against other party members have become final. The state prosecutor has asked the appeal court to confirm the five-year ban, the fine, and a four-year prison term with one year without probation.

Possible outcomes

The three-judge panel can confirm, overturn, or modify the sentence. If the five-year ban stands, Le Pen cannot run in the 2027 election. A reduction to two years would allow her to stand, because the ineligibility would expire on 31 March 2027, just before the first round on 18 April. However, Le Pen has said she will not campaign while wearing an electronic tag, arguing that a candidate must be "completely free to campaign." The second round is scheduled for 2 May.

Unity and media strategy

At a party gathering in Liévin on Saturday, Le Pen and Bardella displayed unity. Bardella expressed his "unrestricted support" and said he hoped Le Pen would be elected president in a few months. Le Pen said that if she cannot run, she will support Bardella "with great energy, great conviction, and great confidence." The party has also agreed on a media plan: Bardella will not enter the historic Palais de Justice, and Le Pen will take the lead in the evening news to announce whether she will withdraw or continue her candidacy.

I am not afraid. Whatever happens, I will not die.

Looking ahead

Le Pen has vowed to keep fighting for her ideas regardless of the verdict. The presidential election's first round is set for 18 April 2027, with a runoff on 2 May. The court's decision will shape not only her political future but also the trajectory of the French right.