Ex-Russian premier Kasyanov urges West to overcome fear of Putin and arm Ukraine

Western perceptions of the Kremlin

Speaking at a conference organised in Paris by the French organisation Russia-Freedom, former Russian prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov argued that Western capitals overestimate Vladimir Putin. Kasyanov, who headed the Russian government from 2000 to 2004, stated that European leaders operate under unnecessary fear when dealing with Moscow. He characterised the Russian president not as an unpredictable actor, but as a methodical strategist who uses provocation deliberately.

The biggest mistake of the West and Europeans is that they are too afraid of Putin. He is not as strong as he seems.

Kasyanov noted that Putin seeks to project the image of an irrational leader to intimidate foreign governments. In reality, the former premier argued, the Russian leader behaves as a calculating cynic shaped by his background in the KGB. Despite an increase in Russian hybrid operations against European states, Kasyanov assessed that the Kremlin will avoid entering a direct, open war against European nations. He stated that Moscow instead seeks to provoke Western reactions that state media can present internally as direct aggression against Russia.

Flawed intelligence and winter escalation

Kasyanov addressed the original decisions behind the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, noting that the Kremlin acted on misleading assessments from Russian security services. Russian intelligence agencies provided reports describing Ukraine as weak and unable to mount sustained resistance, creating assumptions that Putin accepted without question. The former prime minister stated that Putin remains unwilling to acknowledge that the invasion was a mistake.

Putin believed the reports of his security services, according to which Ukraine was weak.

At present, Kasyanov noted, the Russian president believes his forces are winning the war. Based on that assessment, the former prime minister urged European governments to deliver more air defence systems to Ukraine before colder weather sets in. He predicted that the Russian military will intensify its aerial and missile strikes against Ukrainian targets during the winter months.

Divisions within Russian elites

Kasyanov, who has lived in exile in Riga since 2022 following his opposition to the full-scale invasion, stated that he maintains regular contact with members of the Russian political and economic establishment. He reported that a broad consensus exists among elite figures regarding the duration of the conflict, with the vast majority wanting hostilities to end as soon as possible. However, the ruling class remains deeply divided over the terms of any potential resolution.

The difference lies in how it should end: some want the war to end with victory, others want Putin's defeat, and still others simply want it to end regardless of the outcome.

While elite dissatisfaction persists, Kasyanov dismissed prospects for an imminent popular revolt within Russia. He observed that ordinary citizens have lived through high inflation and difficult economic conditions for three decades, building a high tolerance for hardship. In a state that has become practically totalitarian, Kasyanov concluded that only a very large military mobilisation could generate sufficient momentum to trigger mass street protests.