US suspends Iran oil sanctions, Tehran agrees to IAEA return as 60-day peace roadmap takes shape

Sanctions relief and oil exports

The US Treasury issued a licence on Monday suspending sanctions on Iranian oil until 21 August, 00:01 Washington time. All previously prohibited transactions covering the production, sale and transport of Iranian hydrocarbons are now authorised. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the move followed “productive discussions” in Switzerland. Before the US naval blockade imposed in April, Iran was loading over 1.5 million barrels per day for export, mostly to China. That figure collapsed to 260,000 barrels per day in May. Iran’s Economy Minister Seyed Ali Madanizadeh cautioned that sanctions relief would not bring a swift recovery, warning that oil revenues remain impaired and budget imbalances persist.

It is not as if everything will simply return to normal.

Nuclear inspections and enriched uranium

Vice President JD Vance told reporters in Switzerland that Iran had agreed to invite back inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency. “This is a major milestone for the American people and a first step toward permanent denuclearisation, in other words the definitive cessation of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme,” he said. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi was present over the weekend. Iran suspended cooperation with the agency after Israeli-American strikes on its nuclear facilities in June 2025. The last IAEA inspection of the country’s highly enriched uranium stockpile took place on 10 June 2025; the fate of more than 400 kg of material remains uncertain. Under the memorandum of understanding signed last week, Tehran commits to dilute its highly enriched uranium to below 5% concentration under IAEA supervision during the 60-day negotiation window.

The Iranians agreed to invite the IAEA inspectors back. This is a major milestone for the American people and a first step toward permanent denuclearisation.

Strait of Hormuz and maritime control

Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared that the Strait of Hormuz would be administered by Iran and that conditions would never return to pre-war levels. “International rules will be respected, but Iran will administer the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. Tehran plans to introduce maritime fees for vessels transiting the waterway after the 60-day negotiation period. The US Central Command stated the strait was not closed, despite weekend confusion. Vessel tracking data from Kpler showed 35 transits on Saturday and 17 on Sunday, far below the pre-war average of over 100 ships per day. Mediators announced a communication line between Tehran and Washington to manage incidents and ensure safe commercial passage.

Everyone must know that the administration of the Strait of Hormuz will never return to what it was before the war.

From my perspective, the Strait of Hormuz will never be reopened in the way it functioned before this war. The Iranians have discovered they hold something more valuable than a nuclear weapon — unilateral control over the strait.

Roadmap and next steps

After 18 hours of talks at the Burgenstock resort, Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement confirming a 60-day roadmap to a final agreement. A high-level negotiating committee and technical working groups have been set up, with expert-level discussions continuing through the end of the week. Vice President Vance described the outcome as “a very, very good day” that laid “a solid foundation.” The Iranian delegation, led by Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, returned to Tehran on Monday. Three paragraphs of the memorandum anchor the process: cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon; unrestricted export of Iranian oil and petrochemicals; and unfreezing of Iranian assets. During the talks, President Trump reportedly warned Iranian officials they “would not have a country” if they closed the strait.

We laid the foundations. We haven’t built the house yet, but we laid a solid foundation to get to a good place for the American people.