US and Iran agree framework to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz

A preliminary agreement

US and Iran electronically signed a memorandum of understanding on Sunday, agreeing on a framework to end the war that began on February 28. President Trump confirmed "The deal's all signed," and stated that Vice President JD Vance would attend a formal signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday, after which a 60-day negotiation period will begin to address unresolved issues such as Iran's nuclear program and support for regional militias. Oil prices fell to their lowest since March 10 following the announcement, with Dated Brent dropping below $90 per barrel.

The deal's all signed.

Republican scepticism

Despite the announcement, many Senate Republicans expressed reservations. Majority Leader John Thune told reporters he had not been briefed and raised concerns about compliance and enforcement. Senator Lindsey Graham said he was "somewhat concerned" about discrepancies between Iran's and the White House's descriptions. Conservative influencer Erick Erickson went further, declaring on X that "Trump has surrendered to Iran." Vice President Vance defended the deal as a "very general document," noting that details would be worked out during future talks.

The MOU... is about a page. On a number of issues, we are going to have to figure this stuff out during the technical negotiation phase.

Economic incentives and market fallout

The deal envisions reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran closed in the early days of the war, blocking about one-fifth of global oil flows. In return, Iran could receive sanctions relief, the release of $12 billion in frozen assets, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund contributed by neighbouring Gulf states. However, US officials insist that economic benefits will only follow compliance with benchmarks, including an end to nuclear weapons development and support for Hezbollah. Analysts caution that full pre-conflict oil traffic through the strait may not return until 2027.

Full pre-conflict traffic volume is realistically a 2027 story.

Political cracks and unachieved war aims

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged friction with Trump, saying they "don't always see eye-to-eye" after US frustration over Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Trump had called Netanyahu a "very difficult guy." Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer demanded transparency, asking what exactly the US had gained from "Trump's war." Critics note that Trump has achieved almost none of his original war goals: Iran's government remains in place, its ballistic missile programme untouched, and its uranium stockpile unresolved. The war has killed at least 7,000 people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon.

The road to Friday and beyond

The timeline from war to the planned signing is swift. The US and Israel launched strikes on February 28. By Sunday, electronic signatures had been exchanged. The Geneva ceremony is set for Friday, when the strait is scheduled to begin reopening, though full normalization will take months. A 60-day window will follow, during which negotiators must bridge substantial gaps.