Italy's inflation rate accelerates to 3.2% in May, driven by energy prices

Energy drives acceleration

Italy's annual inflation rate rose to 3.2% in May from 2.7% in April, Istat confirmed on June 16. The acceleration was primarily driven by energy costs: unregulated energy prices jumped from +9.6% to +12.5% year-on-year, while regulated energy increased from +5.3% to +5.6%. Transport services also saw a notable rise from +0.6% to +1.7%, and recreational, cultural and personal care services accelerated from +2.6% to +3.0%.

Core inflation ticks up

Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and fresh food, strengthened to +1.7% from +1.6% in April. The broader measure excluding only energy rose to +2.1% from +1.9%. The so-called 'shopping cart' index, covering food, household and personal care goods, eased to +1.9% from +2.3%, providing some offset.

Monthly price movements

On a monthly basis, the Nic rose 0.4%. Increases were led by recreational services (+1.4%), unregulated energy (+0.4%), unprocessed food (+0.3%) and regulated energy (+0.3%). Transport services, however, declined by 0.6% month-on-month, moderating the overall rise.

Goods vs services dynamics

Breaking down the figures, goods prices accelerated from +3.1% to +3.4% on an annual basis, while services rose from +2.4% to +2.8%. The gap between the two narrowed to -0.6 percentage points from -0.7 in April. High-frequency purchase items, which include everyday spending, edged up from +4.2% to +4.4%.

Broader measures and outlook

The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% annually, down from the preliminary estimate of 3.3% but up from 2.8% in April. The index for worker and employee households (FOI) increased 0.3% monthly and 3.0% annually. Acquired inflation, the projected full-year rate if prices remain flat for the rest of 2026, stood at 2.6% for the general index and 1.5% for core.