Forecast overview

While a persistent hot air mass over western and central Europe has produced severe heat there, the 15-day outlook for Greece indicates that the country will sit on the periphery of the extreme anomaly. Meteorologist Thodoris Kolidas, former director of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, issued the forecast on 25 July. He noted that southeastern Europe is not in the main core of the intense warm anomaly. The immediate picture for Sunday 26 July is mostly fair nationwide, with variable winds of 3 to 4 Beaufort; in the Aegean, north-northwesterlies will reach 4 to 5 Beaufort, and locally 6 Beaufort in the south. Maximum temperatures that day will range from 32 to 34 degrees Celsius, while a gradual transport of African dust is expected over the west.

“The outlook for the next 15 days shows that southeastern Europe is not in the main core of the intense warm anomaly.”

Temperature peaks in late July and early August

The first significant temperature spike is forecast for 28 and 29 July, when mercury levels will climb sharply above the average. After that, a modest decline is expected towards the end of the month. However, Kolidas’s analysis shows that a new surge of hot air will arrive around the start of August, pushing temperatures back up. The overall trend is a series of short-lived hot spells rather than a continuous bake.

Urban hotspots: Athens, Thessaloniki, Patra and Larisa

In Athens, Sunday 26 July will deliver maximum temperatures of 32 to 34 degrees Celsius, accompanied by fair conditions. The heat will intensify rapidly on Monday and Tuesday, with the mercury reaching 36°C on 28 July. After 30 July, a temporary retreat to 30-31°C is forecast, but the opening days of August will reverse the trend, driving maxima back to 36-37°C by the end of the outlook. Thessaloniki’s sequence is slightly gentler: 34-35°C around 28-29 July, a shallow dip to 32-33°C, then a fresh rise to 36-37°C in early August. Patra will see a peak of 36-37°C on 28-29 July, a modest fall to 33-34°C thereafter, and persistently warm weather. Larisa, in the Thessalian plain, is also projected to reach 36-38°C intermittently, though no day-by-day detail was provided.

Athens36

Thessaloniki34.5

Patra36.5

Athens

36 °C

Thessaloniki

34.5 °C

Patra

36.5 °C

Data from the article text

No prolonged heatwave, but successive warm bursts

Kolidas stressed that the data do not point to a steady, dangerous heatwave for Greece. Instead, the pattern is one of heat with fluctuations and limited weather phenomena, without a sustained hot period. The absence of any significant rainfall signal means dry conditions will persist alongside the temperature swings.

“The main message is heat with fluctuations, limited phenomena, and not a steady hot period.”

Uncertainty grows after ten days

While the broad evolution for the first week is relatively clear, Kolidas warned that forecast confidence drops markedly beyond the tenth day. He emphasized the need for constant monitoring, as the behaviour of the hot air masses could still alter the local conditions. For now, the settled view points toward a sequence of thermal spikes, not an unbroken extreme event.

“The uncertainty increases after the tenth day, so the picture requires continuous monitoring.”