Republicans shift money toward the Senate
Republicans hold a large financial edge in this year's midterms, but it is concentrated in Senate races rather than House races. In the seven Senate races the Cook Political Report rated as tossups, Republicans are outspending Democrats on advertising by $947 million to $625 million, according to an AdImpact tally that includes ads already aired and future reservations. The House picture is much narrower, with a Republican advertising edge of just $14 million across 21 tossup races. Elon Musk gave nearly $170 million to super PACs backing Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee in Texas, a large share of the spending from a single donor. Both parties and their donors appear to see a Republican hold on the House as increasingly unlikely, which pushes GOP money into the Senate.
- Republicans
- 947 $ million
- Democrats
- 625 $ million
Data from the article text
Republicans cut losses and fight for Ohio and Kansas
Republicans are pulling spending out of some tough territory to rescue others. North Carolina now appears out of reach for them, while Kansas is back in play, and some House incumbents in New Jersey and Iowa are on their own. In Kansas, Republicans' main super PAC has spent or reserved more than $11.6 million to support Senator Roger Marshall against Adam Hamilton, a Democratic pastor. Polls are tightening in Texas, Ohio and Michigan, three Senate races where Democrats had narrow but consistent leads. In Ohio, total Senate spending has reached more than $466 million, and the crypto super PAC Defend American Jobs has spent more than $45 million against former senator Sherrod Brown, who is running against Senator Jon Husted.
- Texas
- 141 $ million
- Michigan
- 33 $ million
Data from the article text
Ohio volunteers and the turnout problem
At one Republican campaign office near Cleveland, only two volunteers showed up on a weekday, while at least 30 packed in each day during 2024. Tanya Karabanovs, 54, one of the two volunteers, said she had recalled that crowd and offered her view of the race.
“There's no way to feel confident about any of the races, honestly.”
Republicans who began the summer arguing that Husted would fix the economy better than Brown pivoted when that message did not land. Americans for Prosperity's political PAC, which deploys thousands of door-knockers across the state, switched its script to the threat of socialism. In a New York Times-Siena University poll, Brown led Husted 49 percent to 46 percent, and Democrat Amy Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 49 to 45 in the governor's race.
Trump's rally tour and a thinning crowd
Trump has rallied in October in Texas (twice), Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio (twice), Nebraska, Tennessee, Alaska, Montana, New York and Kentucky. A column in i News called that a punishing schedule, noting that Trump won every one of those states except New York by double digits two years ago. Kansas remains a concern for Republicans, since Trump carried it by 16 points over Kamala Harris but its Senate race is now a toss-up. The column put Trump's national approval at 32 per cent and described empty upper-tier seats visible on camera at a San Antonio rally in October. Politico reports that Trump has launched a seven-state blitz in seven days.
Georgia spending pulls back
Jon Ossoff maintains wide margins over Republican Representative Mike Collins in public polling and fundraising. The Senate Leadership Fund did not buy broadcast television in Georgia in the week of 12 October, the first week it was off air in the race, according to AdImpact. Neither did Democrats' Senate Majority PAC, which will also stay dark this week. Georgia had been expected to be one of the most expensive battlegrounds of the cycle, but the largest outside spenders are shifting to more competitive races in redder territory.
AI-generated attack ads
The Wesleyan Media Project found that $137 million had been spent on 220 AI-generated ads through 11 October, mostly from Republicans. Four states prohibit certain uses of AI deepfakes in political ads, 27 more require some form of disclosure, and no federal law specifically regulates AI-generated political ads. The Senate Leadership Fund has run deepfake ads depicting Ossoff getting beauty treatments, mocking his reported campaign spending on hair and makeup, and the ads do not disclose AI use, which Georgia law does not require. Ossoff responded in a C-SPAN interview.
“And it's a slippery slope toward the destruction of truth in political debate, and the ad should come down immediately.”
In Michigan, the super PAC Front Line Action used AI in an ad showing Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed in a fabricated family photo, and the ad carries a written and spoken disclosure. In New York, Republican Bruce Blakeman's campaign and allied super PACs have repeatedly used generative AI in ads attacking Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, with varying degrees of disclosure.