Global food prices climb to 136 points in September as grain and sugar costs rise

Index climbs to 136 points

In September 2026, the FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points, up from a revised 134.0 points in August. The reading represents the highest level for the global food commodity benchmark since November 2022. On an annual comparison, the index stood 5.8% higher than in September 2025. Price increases in cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils drove the overall advance, offsetting slight reductions in the meat and dairy sectors.

FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero stated that commodity price pressures were spreading across international markets.

We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad-based build up in global commodity prices, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities.

Drivers behind grain and sugar increases

The cereal price index rose 5.1% in September relative to August, standing 17.2% above its level from the same month in 2025. International wheat prices increased 6.3% over the month, affected by shipping constraints in the Black Sea stemming from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as dry conditions across parts of North America. Global maize quotations rose 5.6% from August, influenced by yield concerns in the United States, reduced export supply from Brazil, and Black Sea transport disruptions. Sugar quotations advanced 6.1% month on month to an 18-month high, driven by tight global supply expectations for the 2026–2027 season and weather risks linked to El Nino in Asian producing nations. Vegetable oil prices increased 0.9%, supported by higher palm oil prices amid steady import demand and dry weather in Southeast Asia.

Meat and dairy markets ease

Modest declines in other food categories provided a partial offset to crop price increases during September. The meat price index fell 1.1% from August, as abundant export supplies led to lower international prices for pork and poultry. In contrast, Brazilian beef export quotations moved higher during the month due to stronger foreign demand. The dairy price index declined 0.1% month on month, as a drop in cheese prices balanced out an increase in skim milk powder quotations, while butter prices remained unchanged.

Torero warned that prolonged price increases at the wholesale level would eventually reach households.

If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food prices, especially in food and energy import-dependent countries.

Production forecasts and trade outlook

In an accompanying assessment, the Food and Agriculture Organization kept its projection for global cereal production in 2026 almost unchanged at 2.979 billion metric tons. That volume is 2.1% lower than the record harvest registered in 2025, but still represents the second-largest harvest on record. The agency reduced its forecast for world cereal trade in the 2026–2027 season by 0.7% compared to its previous monthly estimate. The revision reflects reduced export expectations for wheat and maize, primarily caused by restricted shipping routes across the Black Sea.