AfD challenges CDU and SPD in regional elections across Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

Two regional votes under federal scrutiny

Voters in Berlin and the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania head to the polls on Sunday, 20 September 2026, to elect new regional parliaments. Nearly four million eligible citizens across both jurisdictions, representing about 6% of Germany's population, will participate in the ballots. The regional elections take place exactly two weeks after the 6 September vote in Saxony-Anhalt, where Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 44% of the vote and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) fell to roughly 17%. In that election, the AfD finished just three seats short of an absolute majority in the state parliament. The upcoming contests serve as an immediate test for the federal coalition government and the political authority of Chancellor Friedrich Merz sixteen months into his term.

Tight contest in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, opinion polls project a close finish between the governing Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the AfD. Surveys by Infratest Dimap and INSA place the AfD at 37% and the SPD between 35% and 38%, with state Premier Manuela Schwesig maintaining a personal approval rating above 60%. Meanwhile, the CDU polls at 6% to 7%, leaving the party dangerously close to the 5% electoral threshold required to enter the regional legislature. Regional CDU chairman Daniel Peters described the campaign as a fight for political survival for his party. Key voter priorities in the rural eastern state include education, economic conditions, and addressing an unemployment rate of approximately 8%. Mainstream parties continue to maintain a policy of isolation toward the AfD, refusing to enter any governing coalitions with the right-wing party.

Housing crisis dominates the Berlin race

In Berlin, where the CDU currently leads the local governing coalition alongside the SPD, the election presents a fragmented political field. Polling by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen places the left-wing Die Linke at 23%, the CDU at 21%, and the AfD at 17%. Unlike other regional campaigns focused heavily on national immigration trends, the Berlin race is driven primarily by rent increases and housing availability. Rents in the capital have nearly doubled since 2014, and municipal estimates indicate Berlin requires 210,000 additional homes by 2040. Religious community representatives in the region issued a joint appeal ahead of the vote, calling on citizens to prioritize the protection of minorities at the ballot box.

Federal implications for the governing coalition

The regional ballots follow a nationwide decline in support for the conservative CDU/CSU alliance, which has slipped to between 18% and 20% in national opinion polls compared to 28.5% in the February 2025 federal election. Concurrently, national backing for the AfD has climbed to 30%, while public disapproval of Merz reached 78% among German voters and 88% in recent tracking surveys. In response to domestic political pressure, Merz cancelled his scheduled attendance at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. A federal government official outlined the reason for the cancelled diplomatic trip.

Contrary to initial plans, the chancellor will not travel to New York next week because his presence is required in Berlin.

CDU leadership will convene an extraordinary meeting on Sunday evening to monitor the vote counts and coordinate the party's official response to the results.