Regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania test Chancellor Friedrich Merz and CDU

High stakes in Berlin and the northeast

Two distinct German regions hold state elections on Sunday, 20 September 2026, presenting immediate challenges for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Merz cancelled his participation in the United Nations General Assembly in New York for the second consecutive time to remain in Berlin during the vote count. The CDU leadership convened its Presidium for 17:00, one hour before polling stations close and the first projections appear. The vote follows a contest two weeks earlier in Saxony-Anhalt, where Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 43.8% of the vote, leaving the CDU with 17.2%.

Dueling candidates in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a rural northeastern state of 1.57 million residents with 1.3 million eligible voters, immigration and the economy have dominated the campaign. The state records an unemployment rate of 8%, matching the proportion of foreign-origin residents in the population. Social Democratic Party (SPD) Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, in office since July 2017 and re-elected in 2021 with 39.6% of the vote, is seeking another term. Her main challenger is Leif-Erik Holm, a former radio host who joined AfD at its founding in 2013. Schwesig framed her campaign around the slogan "Die Frau gegen Blau" ("the woman against blue") to consolidate the anti-AfD vote.

The new poll shows that we are in the lead. That motivates us, but it is not yet a result.

What I thought is happening; if things go well in Saxony-Anhalt, we will notice it here too.

Conservative struggle and the five percent threshold

Polling conducted by public broadcaster ZDF shows the SPD leading with 37%, followed by AfD at 36% and the CDU at 6%. The CDU risks falling below the 5% threshold required to secure seats in the regional parliament in Schwerin. Daniel Peters, the CDU regional chairman and lead candidate, noted that the party faces a fight for existence. The projection contrasts with 1990, when the CDU won 38.3% in the state, and 2021, when it secured 13.3%. ZDF noted that the survey carries a margin of error above two percentage points for parties near 10%, with 21% of voters remaining undecided. Eight CDU minister-presidents signed a joint declaration supporting Merz to prevent leadership disputes ahead of the results.

The capital contest and federal implications

In Berlin, where four million residents live, housing availability and costs have served as the central campaign issue. The CDU has led the capital administration since 2023 in a grand coalition with the SPD, having won 28% of the vote in the previous election. The Left party (Die Linke) candidate Elif Eralp, a jurist of Turkish descent, is competing to displace the conservative-led senate. Even if AfD finishes first in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, other parties maintain a firewall refusing coalition talks with the party, which leaves Holm without clear pathways to a parliamentary majority. Polling stations across both regions will close at 18:00.