Poland's fuel price cap rises for Wednesday as excise tax cut expires, pushing all grades above 6 zł per litre

The Wednesday price announcement

The Ministry of Energy published its daily obwieszczenie on Tuesday, setting maximum retail fuel prices for Wednesday 17 June. Pb95 petrol will cost no more than 6.10 zł per litre, Pb98 no more than 6.75 zł, and diesel no more than 6.44 zł. Compared with Tuesday's caps of 5.97 zł for Pb95, 6.52 zł for Pb98, and 6.37 zł for diesel, the increases are 13 groszy, 23 groszy, and 7 groszy respectively.

Tuesday's prices had themselves fallen from Monday's levels of 6.04 zł for Pb95, 6.58 zł for Pb98, and 6.40 zł for diesel. The Wednesday rise reverses that one-day dip and pushes all three grades back above the 6-zł threshold.

How the cap formula works

Under regulations introduced in response to fuel price spikes linked to the Middle East conflict, the energy minister calculates a maximum price each working day using a statutory formula. The formula takes the arithmetic average of wholesale fuel prices reported by the five largest market participants on the previous working day, adds excise duty, the fuel surcharge, a fixed retail margin of 0.30 zł per litre, and VAT.

The announced cap takes effect the day after publication in Monitor Polski. If the notice is issued before a weekend or public holiday, the price remains valid until the next working day inclusive. Selling above the cap carries a penalty of up to 1 million zł, enforced by the National Revenue Administration (KAS).

The next ministerial notice, to be published on Wednesday, will set the caps for Thursday.

Tax changes reshaping the price structure

Two fiscal levers are shifting simultaneously. The reduced VAT rate of 8 percent on fuel, down from the standard 23 percent, was extended by a regulation published in the Journal of Laws on Friday and runs until 30 June. The temporary excise duty cut, however, expired on 15 June and will not be renewed. A source close to the Ministry of Finance confirmed to PAP that the excise reduction would not be extended.

This means that from 16 June through 30 June, the only remaining brake on pump prices beyond the lower VAT rate is the daily maximum-price mechanism. The caps remain in force as long as the reduced VAT rate applies, per the governing statute.

Where prices stand relative to the March launch

The maximum-price system began on 31 March. On that first day, Pb95 was capped at 6.16 zł, Pb98 at 6.76 zł, and diesel at 7.60 zł. Wednesday's caps are below those initial levels for all three fuels. Diesel has fallen the most, dropping by over 1.16 zł per litre from the March starting point.

Mieliśmy najtańsze paliwo w Europie przez ten czas kryzysu, ale oczywiście ten projekt będziemy kończyli teraz, latem.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk told reporters the government plans to phase out the CPN programme over the coming months, citing stabilising conditions in the Middle East. The US and Iran have signed an agreement expected to unblock shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that before the war carried up to one-fifth of global crude supplies.

Enforcement and outlook

The National Revenue Administration conducts compliance checks at filling stations. Any sale above the announced maximum price exposes the seller to a fine of up to 1 million zł. With the excise cut now expired and the VAT reduction set to lapse at the end of June, the daily cap regime remains the primary price-containment tool for the final two weeks of the month.