Starmer pledges smooth transition after frosty meeting with Burnham, who prepares for No. 10 entry on July 17

Transition meeting

Keir Starmer met Andy Burnham for the first time since the Makerfield by-election on June 23, in what sources described as a "frosty" hour-long discussion held away from Downing Street. The prime minister authorised civil service access talks for his likely successor, including meetings with cabinet secretary Antonia Romeo, but resentment within Starmer's inner circle was palpable. One Downing Street insider said the meeting "wasn't the warmest. Frosty, even."

Keir has shown time and again that he will put the interests of the country first but it is fair to say the meeting wasn't the warmest. Frosty, even.

Starmer told his cabinet he wanted an "orderly transition" and would try to make the process "as easy as possible" for his successor. However, allies said he denied Burnham's camp a longer coronation, with the transition now compressed into roughly three weeks. One senior Burnham source said: "The last lot had years to prepare and still fucked it up. We'll just have to do it in three weeks."

Burnham's preparations

Burnham is lining up James Purnell, a former minister under Tony Blair, as his chief of staff in 10 Downing Street. Two people with knowledge of the plan told POLITICO the appointment was "pretty much locked on." Burnham is expected to enter No. 10 on July 17. He will set out his policy platform in a speech next week, pledging economic growth and committing to Labour's existing fiscal rules.

It would be pointless to discuss Britain rejoining the European Union. Calls to return are an unrealistic mirage.

Nick Thomas-Symonds, Starmer's Brexit negotiator, warned Burnham against reheating old battles over EU membership, describing rejoin calls as an "unrealistic mirage."

Starmer's final weeks

Starmer intends to resolve outstanding issues before leaving office, including publishing the defence investment plan (Dip) before the Nato summit on July 7. Allies of former defence secretary John Healey, who quit over the Dip earlier this month, warned against publishing a "half-baked" plan. Starmer's spokesperson said no new major policy or spending commitments would be made, but the prime minister regards the defence plan as settled.

We know this Dip settlement falls well short, and an incoming PM will still have to meet the same requirements. So clearly there is a strong argument against publishing a half-baked Dip now.

The Makerfield by-election

Burnham won the Makerfield seat on June 19, aided by a split in the populist right-wing vote between Nigel Farage's Reform UK and Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain. Opinion polls in the constituency showed a Labour lead of between five and 12 points over Reform, with Restore averaging 7–8% support. Labour had held the seat in the 2024 general election by 13 points. The by-election was triggered when MP Josh Simons stepped down to allow Burnham to return to Westminster and potentially challenge Starmer for the leadership.

Greater Manchester mayor race

A by-election to succeed Burnham as mayor of Greater Manchester will be held on July 30. Labour announced the leader of Manchester City Council as its candidate. Other confirmed candidates include Geraldine Coggins for the Green Party and Marlon West for Restore Britain.