France braces for red heatwave alert as 60 departments under orange warning, peak of 41°C forecast on Sunday

An early summer heatwave that began on Wednesday continues to grip France, prompting orange alerts in 60 departments from the South-West to the North-East. Météo-France describes the episode as "widespread, long-lasting and intense" and warns that Sunday and Monday may be among the hottest days ever recorded nationwide.

Current conditions and immediate outlook

Saturday brings a temporary easing in the north and north-west, where maximums will stay below 25°C along the Channel coast, but elsewhere temperatures remain above 30°C. The forecaster expects afternoon values of 35 to 38°C across much of the country, with local peaks of 39°C. Some thunderstorms, occasionally accompanied by hail and strong wind gusts, may develop over the north-east.

These more frequent, more numerous and more intense heat waves are a clear sign of climate change.

Sunday red alert and peak temperatures

Météo-France has indicated that a red vigilance, the highest level, is likely to be triggered on Sunday for a swath from Nouvelle-Aquitaine through Île-de-France to Burgundy. Maximums could reach 41°C in places. Night-time lows will hover around 30°C, giving residents little relief.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu will activate the inter-ministerial crisis centre on Saturday morning to coordinate state services across health, education, transport, agriculture and the armed forces. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez told a press conference that additional departments may join the 60 already under orange alert and that a decision on a red alert will be announced on Saturday afternoon.

It is probable that from Sunday a certain number of departments could move to red heatwave vigilance.

Possible all-time national heat records

Météo-France projects that the average temperature over mainland France could reach 29.7°C on Monday, which would surpass the current record of 29.4°C set on 25 July 2019 and matched on 5 August 2003. The institute notes that the heat peak is expected between Sunday and Tuesday, with highs of 37 to 42°C on Monday.

The first 40°C reading of the year was recorded on Thursday at Montmorillon (Vienne) and Tortezais (Allier).

Disruption and public safety measures

Paris police prefect Patrice Faure ordered the cancellation of all eleven outdoor sporting events planned in the capital this weekend. Mayor Emmanuel Grégoire voiced deep concern about the Fête de la Musique, scheduled for Sunday, which normally draws thousands of revellers into the streets.

Alcohol, heat and proximity to water are three risk factors that do not mix well. So we would like to eliminate at least one of the three.

The city is keeping its 459 hectares of parks and gardens open overnight. Municipalities such as Biarritz and Limoges are urging vulnerable residents to register on communal lists to facilitate health check-ins.

Longer-term forecast and climate context

Météo-France compares the severity and duration of this event to the August 2003 heatwave and expects high temperatures to persist for much of next week. Scientists have established with certainty that the 1.3°C warming of the Earth’s average temperature since the 19th century is driven by human activities that burn fossil fuels.