Fitch maintains France sovereign rating at A+ as deficit forecasts rise

Sovereign rating affirmation

Fitch Ratings affirmed France's long-term sovereign debt rating at A+ with a stable outlook on 28 August 2026, keeping the credit profile in the upper medium grade tier. The rating agency stated that the French economy remains resilient due to its size, broad economic diversification, solid banking sector, and diversified base of institutional investors. The decision marks the third consecutive confirmation at the A+ level, which Fitch first assigned to France in September 2025 and reaffirmed in early March 2026. Fitch nonetheless noted that short-term economic growth will remain modest, while high public debt and a low growth potential continue to weigh on the sovereign profile.

Deteriorating deficit projections

In its assessment, Fitch revised its fiscal projections upward across the medium term, forecasting a wider public deficit than in its March 2026 review. The agency projects France's public deficit to reach 5.2% of gross domestic product in 2026, compared to its previous 4.9% estimate and the French government's target of 5.0%. Deficits are projected to widen further to 5.5% of GDP in 2027 before declining back to 5.2% in 2028, following a 5.1% deficit recorded in 2025. Fitch explained that the wider deficit estimates stem from slower economic growth, increased sovereign interest payments, and additional spending commitments on defense.

Fiscal warnings and political fragmentation

Fitch identified parliamentary conditions as a key structural vulnerability, noting that persistent political fragmentation limits the government's ability to implement long-term fiscal consolidation. The agency stated that the lack of a working majority in the National Assembly reduces the predictability of public policy and complicates structural budget adjustments. Economy Minister Roland Lescure stated on 28 August 2026 that the government took note of the rating decision.

The government remains fully mobilized to contain the public deficit and debt, within a responsible and balanced framework, in order to guarantee financial stability as well as the competitiveness and growth of the French economy over time.

Budget debates and ministerial reaction

Public Accounts Minister David Amiel addressed the rating on 29 August 2026, calling the confirmation positive news that must not lead to complacency. Amiel emphasized that France currently pays higher borrowing costs on sovereign debt than Greece, Italy, and Spain, directly impacting public finances, corporate investment, and consumer mortgage rates. With parliamentary debates on the 2027 budget scheduled for the autumn session, Amiel called for a cross-party compromise between the republican right, the republican left, and the central bloc, while ruling out talks with far-right and far-left parties.

We are borrowing at a higher rate than Greece, higher than Italy, higher than Spain. This situation is obviously deleterious for public finances.

Amiel also dismissed a proposal by La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon to cancel a portion of the national debt, describing the proposal as a scorched-earth financial approach that would lead toward financial crisis. Amiel stated that the 2025 deficit of 5.1% of GDP leaves no room for unfinanced tax reductions or further fiscal deterioration in the 2027 budget, which represents the final full-year budget before the next presidential election.