Sudden Warming in Poland: IMGW Warns of Thaws and River Swelling

The beginning of March 2026 brought a distinct change in weather to Poland, characterized by an influx of air masses with spring-like features. Thermometers in many regions of the country show double-digit values, reaching up to 14 degrees Celsius locally. This phenomenon, while eagerly awaited by residents, carries serious hydrological threats. The rapid temperature increase caused intense melting of the snow cover, which directly translated into rising water levels in the basins of major rivers. The situation is particularly difficult in the Lower Silesian, Greater Poland, and Masovian voivodeships, where the highest-level alerts have been issued. Very alarming reports are coming from Masovia, where a massive, three-hundred-meter ice jam has formed on the Wkra River. The accumulation of ice hinders the free flow of water, leading to the river overflowing its banks in the Joniec municipality and local inundations of farms. Similar phenomena are observed on the Drwęca River and in the Wrocław area, where services are constantly monitoring the state of flood embankments. Hydrologists point out that this process is dangerous because the ground, after a frosty winter, remains partially frozen, preventing efficient infiltration of meltwater. Ice jams on Polish rivers are a cyclical phenomenon, but their frequency and intensity are increasing along with winter temperature instability. The greatest flood threat in post-war Polish history caused by thaws occurred during the winter of the century in 1979. In addition to water threats, forecasters draw attention to extreme phenomena limiting visibility. IMGW has issued warnings for dense fog, which has covered Greater Poland and Masovia. Visibility in these regions may drop below 200 meters, causing traffic paralysis and numerous collisions. Despite sunny days, nights remain cool, with temperatures dropping to around zero, which favors freezing precipitation and the formation of black ice on national roads. „Sytuacja hydrologiczna pozostaje dynamiczna z powodu nakładania się fal roztopowych i lokalnych zatorów lodowych na mniejszych ciekach.” (The hydrological situation remains dynamic due to the overlapping of thaw waves and local ice jams on smaller watercourses.) — IMGW Statement Long-term forecasts suggest that March will be a month of high variability, described by meteorologists as a 'weather mix'. While the door for spring seems wide open, scientists warn of a paradoxical problem: January 2026 broke the drought record, meaning that despite the current high water levels, the country's overall water balance remains in deficit. This could have a negative impact on agriculture, particularly on soft fruit crops and food prices ahead of the upcoming Easter period.