Alternative for Germany has achieved a historic 37 percent support in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, outpacing the ruling SPD by fourteen percentage points. The latest poll by the Forsa institute, conducted seven months before the state election, indicates a deep crisis of confidence in the current authorities. Over half of the region's residents demand the resignation of Interior Minister Christian Pegel, and support for the SPD and Left Party coalition has drastically fallen, preventing them from governing alone.

Historic Success for AfD

The party obtained 37 percent support in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a record result that establishes it as the undisputed leader ahead of the autumn elections.

Minister Pegel Under Pressure

As many as 52 percent of respondents demand the resignation of SPD Interior Minister Christian Pegel, deepening the image crisis of the local government.

Crisis for the Governing Coalition

The current alliance of SPD and The Left is losing public support, and the combined influence of both parties offers no chance of continuing the existing cooperation after September 2026.

The political situation in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a state directly bordering Poland, has changed dramatically. The right-wing populist party AfD obtained 37 percent of votes in the latest survey, representing a doubling compared to the 2021 elections. Meanwhile, the social democratic SPD under Premier Manuela Schwesig can count on only 23 percent of votes. The poll published by „Ostsee-Zeitung” has sparked a wave of commentary about the defeat of mainstream parties in the region. After German reunification in 1990, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania became a region with a specific political dynamic, where protest parties and post-communist groups regularly played a significant role in the local parliament.Serious image problems have also affected the interior minister. Christian Pegel faces a demand for his resignation from 52 percent of respondents. Importantly, even one in four SPD supporters demands the minister's resignation. This situation is a consequence of growing criticism of migration policy and security issues, which have dominated the local public debate. The coalition partner Die Linke obtained only 11 percent in the survey, meaning the current coalition loses its mathematical majority in the state parliament. „We are heading towards a minority government or single-party rule, for which we need about 42-43 percent of the votes.” — Leif-Erik Holm37% — residents want to vote for AfDSupport for parties in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD: 37, SPD: 23, CDU: 13, Die Linke: 11, BSW: 6, Grüne: 4Change in support relative to the 2021 elections: AfD Support: 16.7% → 37%; SPD Support: 39.6% → 23%Observers point out that such high results for AfD could lead to political paralysis, as the remaining parties maintain a so-called cordon sanitaire around this party. This cordon sanitaire would force the formation of a broad coalition of SPD, CDU, and other smaller entities, which voters often perceive as ignoring their will. However, experts note that polls seven months before an election carry a large margin of error and can mainly serve as a warning signal for the government. Key electoral dates: 19 February 2026 — Publication of Forsa's record poll; 20 September 2026 — State election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

Mentioned People

  • Manuela Schwesig — Premier of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania for the SPD, whose government is losing support in the region.
  • Christian Pegel — Interior Minister of Mecklenburg, whose resignation is demanded by a majority of respondents.
  • Leif-Erik Holm — Co-chair of AfD in Mecklenburg, forecasting the party's chance for single-party rule.