Welsh Elections a Two-Horse Race Between Nationalists and Right Wing, Says Plaid Cymru

The upcoming election to the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, is taking an unexpected shape. The Labour Party, which has dominated for a quarter-century and continuously formed the government in Cardiff since the first elections in 1999, is dramatically losing support. The latest polls indicate it has fallen to third place with around 20% support. This political vacuum has been filled by two opposing camps: Welsh nationalists from Plaid Cymru and the right-wing, anti-establishment Reform UK party. Both parties have around 30% support according to polls, which prompted Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth to present the upcoming contest as a two-horse race, excluding Labour. In his campaign, ap Iorwerth uses sharp, value-laden language. He presents the choice as a decision between "culture and ignorance," where his party embodies care for Welsh interests, language, and future. „„It's a choice between a party that believes in Wales, in our communities, in our culture, in our language, and a party that wants to use Wales as a platform for its vision of Britain.”” — Rhun ap Iorwerth On the other hand, Reform UK, Nigel Farage's party, is seen as an alien force whose Anglocentric agenda threatens Wales's distinctiveness and progress. Ap Iorwerth leaves no doubt about the consequences of a potential victory for his opponent, claiming that a Reform UK government "would set Wales back decades." He criticizes its proposals for public spending cuts and opposition to environmental policy, which Wales has pursued more ambitiously than Westminster. The devolution process in the United Kingdom, i.e., the transfer of powers from the parliament in London to regional assemblies, began in the late 1990s. Wales, like Scotland and Northern Ireland, then gained its own parliament, albeit with slightly narrower powers than the Scottish one. For over 25 years, power in Cardiff has been held exclusively by the Labour Party, which became synonymous with the Welsh establishment. Analysis of poll results confirms ap Iorwerth's thesis. The Labour Party, affected by problems at the national level and perceived by some voters as too close to the Westminster establishment, is losing ground. Polling support ahead of the Senedd election: Plaid Cymru: 30, Reform UK: 29, Labour Party: 20, Conservatives: 10, Liberal Democrats: 6 This dynamic leads to the conclusion that for many voters, a vote for Plaid Cymru has become a vote against both the weakening Labour Party and the perceived radical Reform UK. The Plaid leader seems to be using this moment to position his party as the main force advocating for progressive, pro-Welsh politics. The editorial board of "The Guardian" goes even further in its leader article, speaking of Welsh politics standing "on the brink of a revolution." A victory for Plaid Cymru, which would allow them to take the lead in government or form a coalition, would end Labour's hegemony and fundamentally change the region's political landscape. It would be a historic event, confirming Wales's political distinctiveness and the growing strength of nationalism, which in Scotland has long since transformed into the main opposition force. These elections may therefore not only be a test of Reform UK's popularity outside England but, above all, a moment when Welsh nationalism becomes the largest force in its region for the first time, which will have profound consequences for the future of the United Kingdom.