Euribor tops 3% for first time since 2024 as energy inflation drives rate hike bets

Daily benchmark crosses multi-year high

On 21 August 2026, the daily 12-month Euribor benchmark reached 3.003%, rising 13 thousandths of a percentage point from 2.990% on the prior day. The daily rate crossed the 3% threshold for the first time since September 2024. The indicator began 2026 with a January average of 2.245% before climbing through 2.798% in June and 2.855% in July. The provisional monthly average for August 2026 reached 2.940%, compared to 2.114% recorded in August 2025. This interannual difference of 0.826 percentage points reflects a reversal from 2025, when the annual average sat at 2.222% after falling from 3.275% in 2024.

Mortgage repayments face steep revisions

The climb in benchmark rates directly alters monthly payments for variable-rate mortgages scheduled for adjustment. For an average loan of 150,000 euros over 25 years with a spread of 1% over Euribor, an annual revision tied to the provisional August average increases the monthly payment from 845.24 euros to 911.79 euros, an extra 66.55 euros per month or 799 euros per year. A semi-annual revision on the same loan adds 58.11 euros monthly, rising from 853.68 euros to 911.79 euros. According to figures from Spain's National Statistics Institute cited by mortgage broker Trioteca, an average 175,000-euro loan over 30 years at Euribor plus 0.99% will rise by 87 euros monthly, or 1,044 euros annually. Trioteca chief executive Ricard Garriga noted that average fixed-rate mortgages currently close at 2.5%, producing a monthly payment of 691 euros. Yogi Thadhani, general director at Finteca, noted that commercial banks have raised fixed and mixed mortgage rates between 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points since May 2026.

Central bank expectations and energy pressures

Financial markets expect the European Central Bank to increase its official borrowing costs during the autumn. Model data from ECB Watch indicates a 96% probability that the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on 10 September 2026. Such an increase would raise the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.50%, its highest point since March 2025, following an interest rate pause at the July meeting. Markets also price a 76% probability of a second 25-basis-point increase in October, which would bring the key policy rate to 2.75% through the end of 2026. Laura Martínez, spokesperson for mortgage comparison platform iAhorro, described how market trades are moving ahead of official policy decisions.

Euribor is anticipating monetary tightening that the ECB itself has not yet confirmed. The market is moving faster than central banks, and variable-rate mortgage holders are already noticing that in their monthly payments.

Geopolitical tensions and market outlook

Rising interest rate forecasts follow increased energy price pressures across Europe. Eurozone inflation stood at 2.9%, driven by oil and natural gas prices linked to instability in the Middle East. Brent crude traded around 93 dollars per barrel after the regional truce ended on 17 August 2026, while European benchmark TTF natural gas exceeded 60 euros per megawatt-hour. Joaquim Clarà, an economics professor at Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, addressed the connection between consumer energy costs and central bank policy.

Euribor moves ahead of the European Central Bank and whatever it might do with interest rates.

In Washington, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans for economic sanctions and maritime blockade measures directed against Iran, while the US administration sought backing from China, the primary purchaser of Iranian oil. Futures markets project Brent crude to remain above 90 dollars in September and above 85 dollars through the end of 2026.