UN warns El Niño will hit strong intensity by September, raising global extreme weather risks
The World Meteorological Organization says the ongoing El Niño will rapidly strengthen to level 3 out of 4 between July and September, increasing the probability of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall worldwide.
UN alert
On 3 July 2026, the United Nations warned that the ongoing El Niño climate phenomenon is set to intensify rapidly, reaching "strong intensity" (level 3 on a 4-level scale) between July and September. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued the alert in its monthly seasonal climate bulletin, noting that El Niño conditions have already emerged in the tropical Pacific and will increase the probability of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events across many regions.
El Niño is already present and should intensify rapidly to reach strong intensity. It will increase the probabilities of drought and heavy rainfall, as well as the risks of land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate cycle that occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to twelve months. It warms ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, disrupting global wind, pressure and precipitation patterns. Its strongest influence on global temperatures is felt in the year following its onset. The previous El Niño episode in 2023–2024 contributed to making those years the two hottest on record.
Forecast details and model confidence
The WMO reports that leading global forecast centres indicate a steady and significant rise in ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Seasonal average sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2°C in the key monitored areas. The organisation notes that forecast models "agree remarkably, giving a high degree of confidence in the outlook." El Niño is projected to continue strengthening during the boreal autumn (September to November), extending its influence to many parts of the globe.
- WMO bulletin announces imminent El Niño episode.
- NOAA confirms El Niño began in May.
- UN alert: El Niño to reach strong intensity (level 3/4) between July and September.
- El Niño intensifies to strong level, increasing risks of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall.
- El Niño continues strengthening during boreal autumn, extending influence globally.
Regional impacts
In Europe, a north-south contrast is expected, with more precipitation in the south and less in the north, although forecasts there are less reliable than in many other regions. Meanwhile, temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic basin are expected to remain generally above normal. The WMO predicts an "overwhelming probability" of above-average temperatures in almost all populated areas outside the polar regions for the July–September period.
Context and monitoring
The current bulletin updates the WMO's 2 June announcement of an imminent El Niño episode. On 11 June, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that the phenomenon had begun in May. The WMO and other agencies will continue to monitor the evolution of El Niño in the coming months to assess its impact and update seasonal climate forecasts.
