New Party Poll: Civic Coalition Leads, But Right-Wing Could Take Over Government

Analysis of the latest party polls from early March 2026 points to a complicated situation on the Polish political scene. Although the Civic Coalition (KO) consistently holds first place in support rankings, its ability to maintain power is in question. The combined support for right-wing parties suggests that the current ruling coalition could lose its parliamentary majority to a bloc consisting of Law and Justice and various factions of Confederation. Of particular note is the fact that the combined forces of circles associated with Grzegorz Braun and the mainstream Confederation outpace PiS's standalone result in some rankings, forcing Jarosław Kaczyński's party to revise its communication strategy. Parallelly, a lively discussion is taking place within the camp of the largest opposition party over choosing the face of a future government. According to media reports and statements from politicians such as Przemysław Czarnek, Jarosław Kaczyński may soon announce the name of his candidate for prime minister. Currently, the favorite appears to be Lucjusz Nadbereżny. His candidacy is intended to be a "refresh" of the party's image and attract voters tired of the previous Tusk-Kaczyński duopoly. Other candidates remain in play, including Mariusz Krystian, but Nadbereżny is described as the politician whom the PiS chairman has "in pectore." In Polish political practice, the tradition of indicating a prime ministerial candidate before elections aims to personalize the campaign, a tactic used, among other times, in 2015 when Beata Szydło became the candidate. A significant point of public debate remains the issue of a potential coalition between PiS and Grzegorz Braun's party. Although Jarosław Kaczyński publicly rules out such an agreement, opinion polls indicate that a significant part of society does not believe these declarations. For many voters, this scenario becomes the only alternative to the continuation of KO rule. The situation is dynamic, and the upcoming announcement of PiS's candidate for president, mentioned by Ryszard Czarnecki, is set to be another turning point that could significantly influence current polling trends. „Gdyby to był Lucjusz Nadbereżny, byłoby znakomicie. To świetny samorządowiec, który pokazał, jak skutecznie zarządzać i modernizować polskie miasta.” (If it were Lucjusz Nadbereżny, it would be excellent. He is a great local government official who has shown how to effectively manage and modernize Polish cities.) — Przemysław Czarnek