Dutch nitrogen plan falls short of 2035 targets and risks 10% livestock cut, agency reports

Policy assessment and emission gap

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) concluded that the government's nitrogen package cannot fully resolve the country's permitting impasse. The evaluation assesses the policy package sent to the House of Representatives on 26 June 2026 by Agriculture Minister Jaimi van Essen. The cabinet set a target to lower agricultural ammonia emissions by 42% to 46% by 2035 relative to 2019 levels, alongside a 50% reduction for industry and transport. PBL calculations indicate that the currently drafted measures will achieve a 40% reduction in agricultural emissions, assuming complete execution without delays or legal setbacks. Closing the remaining gap will require additional interventions, including mandatory reductions in livestock numbers.

Livestock reduction and farm mandates

To reach the statutory targets, the assessment projects a compulsory reduction of the national livestock herd by 5% to 10%. The government policy introduces individual emission ceilings for every farm and establishes limits on the number of cows allowed per hectare of agricultural land. These requirements eliminate lower cost sustainability measures as viable long-term options for intensive livestock operations. PBL researchers noted that farmers who invest in emission-reducing technology or transition to extensive farming models still face financial risks, as generic livestock cuts could follow if nationwide targets remain unmet. The agency pointed to regulations on field manure spreading as one mechanism that could prevent mandatory herd reductions if defined more concretely.

Buffer zones and nature recovery

The cabinet allocated 20 billion euros through 2035 to finance farm modernization, business buyouts, and ecological restoration. Approximately half of that budget is designated to extensify agriculture within buffer zones extending 500 to 1,000 meters around nitrogen-sensitive Natura 2000 areas. Within these transition zones, emissions may need to decrease by up to 60%, restricting local activity to nature-friendly farming. Despite these reductions, nitrogen deposition will continue to exceed critical limits across more than half of sensitive habitats by 2035. In only 14 of the 120 designated vulnerable nature areas will nitrogen deposition fall below the critical deposition value.

PBL director Marko Hekkert addressed the limits of the policy package while acknowledging its scope.

The cabinet had as goal to unlock the Netherlands and has proposed a very ambitious and comprehensive package of measures. With this, it takes big steps towards the solution. The country does not come off the lock all at once with this, but we also cannot imagine a package that could.

Implementation challenges and legal permitting

The agency warned of practical obstacles in executing the program, noting that authorities possess no prior experience in enforcing individual farm-level emission ceilings. The analysis also criticized the cabinet for omitting an overarching long-term vision for rural development, an omission stemming from a rush to restart stalled permits for housing, industry, and agriculture. While nitrogen will remain an environmental factor for decades, PBL indicated that permit approvals could gradually ease on a case-by-case basis as regional conservation measures improve ecological conditions.