Drought and heat cost German farmers over 600 million euros in lost harvest

Harvest losses mount

The Deutscher Raiffeisenverband (DRV), representing 1,600 cooperative companies in agricultural trade and processing, presented its final harvest balance on 13 August. Around three million tons of grain and rapeseed have been lost since mid-June due to persistent heat, with revenue losses exceeding 600 million euros. The DRV now forecasts a 2026 grain harvest of 40.6 million tons, more than ten percent below the 2025 figure of 45 million tons and well under the five-year average of 42.5 million tons. Rapeseed is expected to yield 3.7 million tons, down from 4.0 million tons in 2025. A heat wave with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius set in around mid-June, burning standing crops such as winter wheat.

Regional divide

The damage varies sharply by region. In northern Germany, particularly Schleswig-Holstein, yields are near the previous year's level. The further south, the worse the outlook, with Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg hardest hit. Grain losses there reach up to 20 percent, and grain maize threatens to dry out completely. DRV grain market expert Guido Seedler reported that grain maize losses in Bavaria exceed 20 percent. Sample diggings of sugar beets in dry regions showed weights roughly 25 percent below the long-term average. According to the German Weather Service (DWD), soil moisture values in southern Germany temporarily fell below those of the drought years 2018 and 2022. The Federal Low Water Information System (NIWIS) recorded new negative records for groundwater levels in the Alpine region. Agricultural economist Mareike Söder from the Thünen-Institute assessed the situation somewhat less pessimistically, noting that winter grain in many regions had already developed favorably before the heat struck.

Fodder crisis and financial strain

Bauernverband president Joachim Rukwied warned that fodder is no longer regrowing, especially in southern Germany, forcing some farmers to slaughter animals earlier than planned. He described the economic pressure on farms.

The economic situation of agriculture is brutally tense — on the one hand high costs for inputs and on the other hand low prices for agricultural products.

Rukwied said he knows colleagues who can no longer pay their pesticide and fertilizer bills and must approach banks for liquidity loans. He is demanding three immediate measures from the government: raising EU fertilizer aid from 60 to 180 million euros, advancing 80 percent of EU direct payments to October, and cutting diesel taxes until at least the end of November. He also called for a tax-free risk equalization reserve as outlined in the coalition agreement.

Transport and supply concerns

Low water levels in German rivers are disrupting inland shipping, which carries grain, fodder, and fertilizer. DRV board member Philipp Spinne warned that many ships can currently load only up to one-third of their usual cargo. One inland vessel replaces roughly 40 fully loaded trucks, and shortfalls cannot be fully offset by road or rail. Spinne emphasized that animals eat daily and must be supplied. He also cautioned that farmers holding back on fertilizer orders for 2027 in hopes of falling nitrogen prices could trigger supply shortages, as traders and importers would then hold back on building stockpiles.

Despite the losses, Seedler said the 2026 harvest remains sufficient, as annual German grain consumption of around 40 million tons is mathematically covered. No consumer price increases for bread are expected, as grain accounts for only a small fraction of the retail price. Energy, labor, and bureaucratic costs remain the primary price drivers. The current wheat price stands at around 220 euros per ton, slightly above the previous year. Many municipalities have restricted water extraction; in Baden-Württemberg, only 5 of 44 districts have no restrictions, and Stuttgart imposes fines of up to 100,000 euros for violations.