Die Linke takes lead in Berlin election poll ahead of CDU and AfD

Forsa survey puts Die Linke in the lead

A Forsa survey conducted for t-online places Die Linke in first place four weeks ahead of the Berlin state election scheduled for 20 September 2026. The party, led by top candidate Elif Eralp, reached 22 percent of voter intentions in the poll. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Stefan Evers, and the Alternative for Germany (AfD), headed by Kristin Brinker, tied for second place at 18 percent each. The Greens followed with mayoral candidate Werner Graf at 16 percent, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and its top candidate Steffen Krach received 12 percent. The survey recorded the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) at four percent and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) at three percent, leaving both beneath the five percent parliamentary hurdle. Other parties accounted for seven percent of voter support.

Coalition arithmetic and parliamentary thresholds

Because 14 percent of total voting intentions fell to parties failing to cross the five percent threshold, a governing majority in the Abgeordnetenhaus is mathematically possible at roughly 44 percent. Under the recorded numbers, no two-party alliance can command a parliamentary majority, as the currently governing CDU and SPD coalition reaches only 30 percent combined. A tripartite coalition between Die Linke, the Greens, and the SPD reaches a combined 50 percent of the vote, representing a clear majority. The survey identified that red-green-red alliance as the most popular coalition option among respondents. An alternative alliance combining the CDU, the Greens, and the SPD commands 46 percent of the vote, offering a second mathematical path to government formation.

Shift from previous polling and CDU leadership change

The Forsa numbers differ from an Insa survey published for Bild one week earlier, in which the CDU led with 20 percent and Die Linke stood at 19 percent. That earlier poll recorded a tighter spread, with the AfD at 17 percent, the Greens at 16 percent, and the SPD at 15 percent. In that Insa survey, the separation between the top five parties was limited to five percentage points. The current governing coalition in the city-state consists of the CDU and the SPD. Governing Mayor Kai Wegner stepped down as the CDU lead candidate several weeks ago following scrutiny over his crisis management during a large power outage in January. The CDU subsequently selected Finance Senator Stefan Evers to lead its campaign.

Methodological context and upcoming vote

The Forsa poll surveyed 1,535 eligible voters between 4 August and 18 August 2026. The findings carry a statistical margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Berlin voters will cast their ballots on 20 September 2026 to choose a new Abgeordnetenhaus and determine the next state executive. Polling across research institutes in recent weeks has shown the lead alternating between the CDU, Die Linke, and the AfD. Institute analysts noted that diminishing party attachment and short-term voting decisions complicate data weighting ahead of election day.