Polish Economy Accelerates at Year-End: GUS Presents Latest GDP Data

The latest readings from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) indicate that the Polish economy ended the past year in better shape than some market skeptics predicted. The GDP growth at the end of 2025 was based on stable domestic consumption and a rebound in investments, which economists describe as growth standing on "two legs." These results provide a solid foundation for development in 2026, although experts from Santander Bank Polska warn that in the first quarter, the growth rate may slightly decelerate below 4 percent. Optimism is also tempered by signals from the industrial sector, where a decline in new orders was recorded, which may herald a temporary cooling of the economic climate in the coming months. The situation is complicated by reports from the commodities and agriculture markets. Grupa Azoty, a national chemical giant, has decided to temporarily suspend accepting new fertilizer orders. This decision is directly linked to sharp fluctuations in natural gas prices on global markets, raising farmers' concerns about production costs in the upcoming season. Simultaneously, the ministry is reassuring the public regarding fuel availability, denying misinformation circulating online. On global markets, attention is focused on US tariff policy. Although US courts have partially blocked the restrictions announced by Donald Trump, the specter of a trade war and rising prices for electronics, including computers, remains real. Analysts predict that the era of cheap IT equipment may end irrevocably before 2028 due to rising component and logistics costs. Since its accession to the European Union in 2004, Poland has undergone a deep transformation, becoming one of the fastest-growing economies in the region, resilient to numerous external crises. A key event of the week for millions of Poles will be the scheduled March 4th meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP). Borrowers are hopefully looking for signals of possible rate cuts; however, the tense situation in the Middle East and a potential inflationary impulse from energy prices may prompt the Council to maintain its current hawkish course. Mixed sentiments prevail on the Warsaw Stock Exchange; indices are ending sessions "in the red," even though analysts point to many undervalued domestic companies that could become attractive targets for long-term investors. In the background of the economic debate, voices concerning energy security are also emerging, including proposals to strengthen the role of hard coal and lignite in Poland's fuel mix. „GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 may fall below 4 percent.” — Representative of Santander Bank Polska The Monetary Policy Council was established under the 1997 Constitution, and its main statutory objective is to maintain a stable price level while simultaneously supporting the government's economic policy.