The latest macroeconomic data for February 2026 paints a dual picture of the European economy. While inflation in Germany unexpectedly fell below the European Central Bank's target, reaching 1.9%, France recorded a sharp price jump of 1%. Simultaneously, signals from the US indicate higher-than-forecast producer inflation, casting doubt on the pace of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

German inflation below target

The consumer price index in Germany unexpectedly fell to 1.9%, beating forecasts thanks to cheaper energy.

Price pressure in France

In contrast to Germany, France is grappling with a sudden inflation increase of 1% on a monthly basis.

US battles more expensive services

Producer prices (PPI) in the United States rose by 0.5%, driven primarily by the services sector.

February 2026 brought significant shifts in the price dynamics of the world's largest economies. In Germany, inflation slowed to 1.9% year-on-year, a result better than market expectations. The main factor curbing price growth for our western neighbors was cheaper energy commodities, which outweighed the still relatively high food costs. This situation offers hope for a quicker recovery in consumption, although the process is progressing slowly. Completely different sentiments prevail in France, where the statistical office Insee recorded a jump in inflation of a full percentage point within a month. However, the price increase there is accompanied by increased household consumption, suggesting a different demand characteristic than in Germany. Stabilization is also visible in the financial market in Spain, where the Euribor rate, which determines mortgage interest rates, stabilized at around 2.2%. For many families, this means an end to the sharp drops in installments, despite previous downward trends. Following the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, European economies are striving to restore price stability near the 2% inflation target set by the ECB.The situation across the ocean appears more concerning for financial markets. The US producer price index rose by 0.5% in January, exceeding analysts' forecasts. The driving force behind the price surge has been the services sector, which may force the Fed to maintain its restrictive monetary policy for longer. In Brazil, on the other hand, inflation forecasts were exceeded in mid-February, prompting the local government to partially roll back planned import tax hikes to protect the domestic market. „En février, l'inflation en France fait un bond de 1%, selon l'Insee; la consommation des ménages augmente aussi.” (In February, inflation in France jumped by 1%, according to Insee; household consumption also increased.) — InseeDespite global downward trends in energy prices, consumers still feel pressure in grocery stores. This phenomenon, described as the 'supermarket mountain plant,' involves persistently high subjective feelings of inflation even with a statistical drop in CPI indicators. These discrepancies will be a key challenge for central banks in the coming quarters.