Poland's core inflation ticks up to 3.1% in May, matching the headline CPI for the first time in months

The May reading

Poland's headline consumer inflation (CPI) came in at 3.1% year-on-year in May 2026, according to data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) on Monday and confirmed by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) on Tuesday. Month-on-month, consumer prices fell 0.3%, with goods prices down 0.4% and services down 0.2%. The annual figure masks a sharp divergence: services prices jumped 5.7% year-on-year while goods rose only 2.1%.

The most frequently used measure by analysts is the inflation indicator excluding food and energy prices. It shows price trends for those goods and services on which the central bank's monetary policy has a relatively large influence.

Core inflation measures

NBP published four core inflation indicators for May. The headline-grabbing measure, inflation excluding food and energy, reached 3.1% year-on-year, up from 3.0% in April and matching the market consensus. Two other measures accelerated more sharply: inflation excluding the most volatile prices rose to 3.3% (from 3.0%), and the 15% trimmed mean also hit 3.3% (from 3.0%). The only measure that eased was inflation excluding state-administered prices, which slipped to 2.8% from 2.9% a month earlier.

What drove the numbers

GUS attributed the monthly price decline to three categories: food and non-alcoholic beverages (down 1.0% month-on-month), recreation, sport and culture (down 2.1%), and transport (down 0.5%). Analysts at mBank noted that vegetables, likely early spring produce, were the main driver behind the food price drop, with organised tourism also contributing a dose of typical seasonal volatility. The 5.7% annual rise in services costs remains the dominant pressure point for Polish households.

Inflation in May confirmed at 3.1%. As usual in May, vegetables were 'to blame' for the sharp drop in food prices — most likely new spring produce. Organised tourism added its three cents too, a classic volatility item.

Policy context

NBP reiterated that it calculates four core inflation measures each month to "better identify the sources of inflation and more accurately forecast its future trends." The central bank emphasised that energy and fuel prices are set on global markets, sometimes under speculative influence, while food prices depend heavily on weather and domestic and global agricultural conditions. The convergence of the core measure with the headline CPI at 3.1%, both now identical, means the transitory disinflation from food and fuel is no longer pulling the headline figure below the underlying trend. This removes a statistical cushion that had been present in earlier months.

What comes next

The May data lands in a period when the core measure has been edging upward for several months. The 3.1% reading matches market expectations exactly, but the acceleration in the trimmed mean and most-volatile-excluded measures, both jumping 0.3 percentage points in a single month, will draw attention from rate-setters at the Monetary Policy Council. With services inflation running at 5.7%, the domestic demand channel remains the primary source of price pressure, even as goods inflation sits at a more subdued 2.1%.