CIA alerts France, Spain, and Italy to Russian plans for sea-launched drone attacks

Mediterranean alert

United States intelligence agencies have notified European allies that Russia is preparing maritime drone strikes against France, Spain, and Italy. The CIA alert, circulated to multiple European capitals, indicates that Moscow plans to extend its hybrid operations beyond frontline eastern and northern European states into the Mediterranean basin. Intelligence briefings indicate that Russian operatives intend to deploy unmanned aerial vehicles concealed inside standard shipping containers aboard commercial cargo vessels. By using merchant ships and shadow fleet vessels in international sea lanes, Russian forces could approach European coastlines without deploying conventional military naval assets.

Drone capabilities and deployment

Lithuanian defence officials briefed on the intelligence identified the Russian Gerbera drone as the weapon selected for these operations. The Gerbera measures approximately two metres in length with a 2.5-metre wingspan, weighs up to 18 kilograms, flies at speeds of roughly 160 kilometres per hour, and possesses a declared operational range of 600 kilometres. Unlike larger Shahed or Geran drones, the compact Gerbera can be transported in disassembled sections inside maritime containers and launched with relative ease via catapult.

They will use drones launched from the sea, hidden in a container; it is not difficult at all.

Catapulted from cargo ships situated 200 to 300 kilometres off the coast, the drones require between one hour and 15 minutes and two hours of flight time to reach mainland targets. With a modest explosive payload of four to five kilograms, the Gerbera lacks the destructive force to level large buildings, but it can trigger fires, damage exposed infrastructure, and disrupt airport and seaport operations. Geographic range maps show that nearly the entire Italian territory, with the exception of the north-east, falls within striking distance of Mediterranean sea routes.

Sequence of hybrid operations

The alert follows a sequence of Russian hybrid actions designed to probe Western defence responses. Previous incidents included 19 unarmed drones crossing into Polish airspace a year prior, as well as a disrupted operation involving armed drones at Leipzig airport in Germany that German authorities linked to Russian intelligence. CIA Director John Ratcliffe travelled to Moscow on 25 August 2026 to caution Russian leadership against launching attacks or provocations against NATO territory. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Poland holds consistent and convincing data concerning planned Russian hybrid attacks against Kyiv's allies. On 16 September 2026, French President Emmanuel Macron convened a Defence Council and met party leaders at the Elysée Palace to warn them that similar incidents could occur in other European cities.

Strategic and political motives

Russian authorities have maintained that Western provisions of arms, intelligence data, and military advisers make supporting nations active participants in the war and legitimate targets. By executing low-intensity maritime attacks, the Kremlin seeks to generate psychological and economic pressure while remaining beneath the threshold that would mandate a direct NATO collective defence response. France, Spain, and Italy are each scheduled to hold national elections in 2027, creating political environments where public fear and war fatigue could be amplified by radical domestic factions.

Our threat is not a Russia that brings its troops through the Pyrenees to the Iberian Peninsula.

While Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez made that remark in 2025, the maritime drone plan demonstrates how sea-launched tactics could bypass land borders to reach previously insulated Mediterranean nations.