Burnham poised to become UK prime minister as Reeves battles to keep Treasury role

Starmer's exit

Keir Starmer announced his resignation as prime minister on Monday, less than two years after Labour's landslide general election victory. The decision followed disastrous local election results, weak poll ratings, and a by-election win by Andy Burnham that answered the question of who could replace him. Starmer's premiership was marked by broken promises, policy U-turns, and the resignations of several ministers and advisers, including his deputy. In his resignation speech, his voice cracked, revealing a rare emotional side. Business Secretary Peter Kyle had earlier described Starmer's situation as "considering his political realities."

Burnham's coronation

Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is the only declared candidate to succeed Starmer. Labour's ruling body set a timetable that could see him installed as prime minister as early as 17 July if no other candidate secures the required 81 MP nominations by 15 July and union backing by 16 July. If contested, a ballot would run from 6 to 27 August, with a result on 29 August. Burnham, first elected to parliament in 2001, has been described as decent, intelligent and likeable. His by-election victory last week and his relaxed, self-assured manner in the Commons have boosted his standing. The Liberal Democrat MP Alistair Carmichael, who entered parliament with Burnham, wrote that he looked like a man capable of doing the job and might actually enjoy it.

Reeves fights for Treasury

Rachel Reeves publicly backed Burnham for prime minister but faces intense speculation she will be demoted from the Treasury. She told the BBC, "I'm supporting Andy to be prime minister," and later said she had "unfinished business" as chancellor, pointing to falling inflation, rising wages, and economic growth. Reeves urged the next leader to stick to her fiscal rules, which Burnham has committed to. However, her role as co-architect of the Starmer government, blamed for many missteps, makes her a likely casualty of a cabinet reshuffle. Potential replacements include Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, though some Labour figures have cautioned against Miliband.

I'm really proud of my record... wages have risen faster than inflation for every single month that I've been chancellor of the exchequer.

Cabinet reshuffle ahead

Burnham is expected to make significant changes to the top team. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson is under pressure after failing to deliver on a manifesto pledge of 6,500 more teachers; she was called a "spiteful class warrior" by Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, a remark that briefly united Labour MPs behind her. Justice Secretary David Lammy is likely to survive but may lose the deputy prime minister title. Burnham's informal advisory team includes former Goldman Sachs executive Jim O'Neill, ex-Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane, and former OBR chair Richard Hughes, all focused on fiscal credibility and devolution.

Scottish Labour pressure

The fallout from Starmer's resignation has reached Scotland, where Labour's poor results in the 2026 Holyrood election have prompted calls for Scottish leader Anas Sarwar to step down. The BBC's Scotcast podcast discussed whether Sarwar should follow Starmer's example, with former MSP Paul O'Kane weighing in.