Andy Burnham's Makerfield by-election landslide threatens Keir Starmer's grip on UK premiership

By-election outcome

Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, has won the Makerfield parliamentary by-election with 55% of the vote, dealing a blow to Nigel Farage's Reform UK. The seat, which Reform had swept in May's local elections, was taken by Burnham with a significantly increased Labour majority. The Conservatives, who held second place in the constituency for a century until 2024, saw their candidate win just 997 votes, while the Liberal Democrat candidate managed 163 votes, only 68 more than Count Binface.

Burnham has provided as much evidence as any Labour MP could expect from a by-election as to his potential ability to take the challenge to Reform.

Pressure mounts on Starmer

The victory has ignited immediate calls from Labour MPs for Keir Starmer to step aside and allow Burnham to become prime minister without a protracted leadership contest. Ministers including Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood are pressing Starmer to set a resignation timetable. But Starmer has refused, urging the party to "pull together" and "avoid plunging the country into chaos."

Let's pull together as a party and a movement. The one thing we've got to avoid doing is plunging our party and our country into chaos.

He claimed credit for Reform being "on the run," even as internal Labour polling showed Burnham's potential replacement of Starmer was the top reason voters backed him. A leadership election could take up to three months, leaving the party exposed.

The Burnham brand and policy offer

Burnham's campaign, built on the "Brand Burnham" persona cultivated over years as mayor, relied on the slogan "for us" and a political offer that mixed economic populism with anti-establishment sentiment. His image, a stylized illustration by Stanley Chow showing a slight scowl and no tie, became visual shorthand for that message.

Funny with just a little anger in there.

Burnham promised to end "trickle-down" economics, reindustrialise British cities, use public procurement to boost domestic business, and introduce work placements for all 16- to 18-year-olds. He also pledged to tackle an "unfair" immigration system and proposed a land value tax and public ownership of essential utilities.

Economic challenges ahead

If Burnham ascends to Downing Street, he faces a severely constrained fiscal position. In May, the UK borrowed £23.3 billion, nearly a third more than the same month last year and £5.6 billion above forecast. Interest payable on the public debt reached £11.7 billion in May, the highest ever for that month, and before the impact of the war in Iran is fully felt. The Bank of England held interest rates steady to stem a weakening job market. Burnham's spending pledges will collide with these realities, forcing difficult choices on tax, borrowing, and public services.

What's next?

Burnham has said the by-election victory gave him "a mandate to lay out a new path for Britain," but he stopped short of immediately challenging Starmer. Labour's internal rules require a leadership contest if a vacancy occurs, and Starmer's allies insist he will fight one. With the party's poll ratings at record lows since the 2024 general election win, the coming days will determine whether Burnham can secure a "coronation" or whether a longer internal war will consume Labour, potentially benefiting Reform UK ahead of the next national vote.