Burnham poised to win Makerfield byelection, setting up Labour leadership showdown with Starmer

A single parliamentary seat in an overlooked corner of northwest England has become the fulcrum for a potential change of prime minister. The Makerfield byelection, held on 18 June 2026, is widely expected to be won by Labour’s Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, who has not hidden his ambition to lead his party. If he enters the Commons, allies say he will rapidly move to oust Keir Starmer from Downing Street.

A fractured right opens the door

The constituency, a collection of former mining towns and villages near Manchester, has turned into a two-way fight between Burnham and Reform UK’s Rob Kenyon. The Conservatives have collapsed to 3% in one poll, and many right‑leaning voters are angry that Restore Britain, the hardline party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, is siphoning votes from Nigel Farage’s candidate.

What’s the point of this? The aim here should be to stop Burnham and Labour.

Even some Iranian‑British citizens who have voted Conservative for decades say they will “throw the dice” on Reform. Darren, a snooker club owner, predicted that Restore’s roughly 7% share would be decisive: “If Restore weren’t around Reform would walk it. … Restore will take those votes that will push it Andy Burnham’s way.”

Burnham braces for the aftermath

Burnham’s campaign has tried to project unity, and some Labour MPs are already pressing for an immediate leadership push. Rachael Maskell, who led a rebellion against disability cuts last year, said voters were “turning to Andy because he’s bringing people together.”

This country is crying out for his leadership.

Behind the scenes, Burnham’s team has been urging ministers not to resign pre‑emptively. A senior campaign figure told the Guardian that several cabinet‑level figures are “trigger happy” and have offered to quit, but the camp wants to avoid a chaotic collapse. “We can’t have a Boris Johnson‑style collapse. If they’re trying to force Keir’s hand with a kamikaze approach it will ultimately be counterproductive,” the figure said. The preference is for a managed transition: give Starmer time to set out a departure timetable, then engineer a smooth handover.

Starmer’s last stand

The prime minister says he will not “walk away” and has constructed layers of defence. He has a dedicated campaign team, a bank account for a leadership contest, and a plan to repopulate ministries if mass resignations occur. Allies have described a “100m hurdles” strategy that includes warning Burnham about losing the Manchester mayoralty, exploiting the fragile geopolitical environment, and possibly offering a job.

I won’t walk away.

Starmer’s wife Victoria is reportedly his most important backer. The parliamentary arithmetic – more than 150 MPs hold government roles and are bound by collective responsibility – gives him a substantial payroll vote, but Labour figures say the crisis could reach a point where senior cabinet ministers tell him over the weekend to step aside.

The road to No. 10

How quickly could Burnham become prime minister? The Guardian assessed several scenarios; the fastest path depends on the byelection result, mass cabinet resignations, and whether Starmer agrees to a handover. Wes Streeting, a potential leadership rival who is sceptical about his own numbers, said on Wednesday that Starmer would face a challenge next week.

We want to give Keir time and space to come to terms with the reality of his situation. Andy wants a managed transition. It’s what Labour MPs want. We need to keep the government on track.

Burnham allies believe Starmer will ultimately be told by his own cabinet to go, avoiding a drawn‑out contest that could last months.