UK consumer confidence surges six points to -17 in July, largest gain since 2023, amid new PM and World Cup

Consumer mood lifts sharply

The GfK consumer confidence index rose six points to minus 17 in July, the largest one-month gain since November 2023. The survey of just over 2,000 people was conducted in the first half of July, before Andy Burnham formally became prime minister on 20 July and before the latest US-Iran escalation pushed oil prices to $100 a barrel. Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, described the improvement as a "wave of optimism" driven by several factors.

What drove the bounce

Bellamy pointed to the "sense of a fresh start" after Burnham's appointment as Labour leader, the feelgood factor of England reaching the World Cup semi-final, and hopes that the Middle East conflict might stabilise and bring fuel prices down. Summer heatwaves also contributed to the lift in sentiment. The FT noted that the improvement came despite the index remaining deep in negative territory, where it has been for more than a decade.

Hot on the heels of the summer heatwaves, July has delivered a wave of optimism. The sense of a fresh start following the appointment of a new Prime Minister surely accounts for some of this bounce.

Sub-indices show broad-based gains

All five components of the index improved. Confidence in the general economic situation over the past 12 months jumped 10 points to minus 39, five points higher than a year ago. Expectations for the economy over the coming 12 months rose eight points to minus 28, one point above July 2025. The major purchase index, measuring willingness to buy big-ticket items, climbed eight points to minus 12, three points higher than last July. Perceptions of personal finances over the next 12 months moved into positive territory, rising three points to plus one, though that was one point lower than a year earlier.

Economic backdrop remains fragile

The brighter mood is not yet backed by hard data. GDP growth has slowed since the start of the Iran war, with output rising just 0.1% in May after a 0.1% contraction in April. Employment was flat and wage growth slowed, according to jobs data released this week. However, inflation eased to 2.6% in June, helped by lower petrol prices and a slowdown in food inflation. The FT reported that some cost-of-living pressures had already begun to ease before Burnham's early decisions to cut VAT from energy bills and cap bus fares.

Burnham's first week: a "cost of living government"

Burnham used his inaugural week to signal a sharp break with past economic policy. In his first speech as prime minister on Monday, he vowed to dismantle Thatcher-era policies and promised "the biggest change" in decades. Addressing his cabinet on Tuesday, he declared his administration a "cost of living government". The Independent reported that these pledges, combined with the early VAT cut and bus fare cap, were aimed at alleviating household financial strain.

For the 'Burnham bounce' to be sustainable and boost consumer confidence, it will require consistent delivery by the refreshed UK Government against deep cost-of-living challenges and persistent low economic growth.

Can the bounce last?

GfK cautioned that July's improved score remains within the narrow range seen since late 2023, and it has been a decade since the headline index was in positive territory. The survey was taken before the latest oil price spike, which could feed back into inflation and dampen sentiment. The sustainability of the bounce hinges on whether Burnham's government can translate early rhetoric into tangible improvements in living standards.