Brexit at 10: economy 6-8% smaller, trade shrivelled, and seven prime ministers later

Ten years after the 23 June 2016 referendum, the economic and political legacy of Brexit continues to divide the country, even as new data quantify the cost. A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, led by Stanford professor Nicholas Bloom, estimates the UK economy is 6-8% smaller than it would have been, with investment down 12-13% and productivity 3-4% lower. The Office for Budget Responsibility reached a similar conclusion, saying the average British citizen has lost over £3,000 a year.

“It's been a disaster. The average British citizen has lost over £3,000 a year as a result of leaving the European Union.”

The toll on small business

Small and medium-sized exporters have been hit hardest, with between 16,000 and 20,000 firms stopping EU exports altogether. Cheshire cheesemaker Simon Spurrell sold his company after discovering a £30 cheese sale required a £180 health certificate. Exports of farm products fell 37.4% between 2019 and 2024, according to the National Farmers' Union. For Phil Ward, whose Bristol-based firm Eskimo makes energy-efficient radiators, the EU export share collapsed from 40% in 2020 to just 5% by 2025.

“Small producers are just trapped on this island and we're all fighting each other for the same market share.”

Political carousel

Seven prime ministers have held office since the vote, none longer than three years. Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, making him the sixth premier to leave Downing Street in the post-referendum era. The next occupant will inherit a UK that has, according to a study from Aston University Business School, lost 53.8% of the varieties of goods it exports to the EU and 31.5% of import varieties.

“Ever since Brexit we've been treated like black sheep. A French person seldom buys from me, a German person seldom buys from me.”

Sterling and sentiment

The pound collapsed on the result and has never recovered, spending 98% of trading days below €1.20 against the euro. Polling now shows 57% of Britons see Brexit as a mistake, against 30% who still think it was right. In Doncaster, where 69% voted Leave, retired couple Ann and Ian Fraser still disagree: Ann feels worse off, while Ian believes the UK can "talk for ourselves."

Looking ahead

A UK-EU special summit is planned for 22 July, aimed at fostering closer working relations, though one opinion piece warns against imagining rejoining the EU as a quick fix. On the ground, small firms remain locked out of their nearest market.