Ten years after the Brexit vote, the UK counts the cost of leaving the EU
A decade after the 2016 vote to leave the EU, polls show a majority of Britons would now vote to rejoin, while the UK economy has suffered a lasting productivity loss of 4% and its politics remain unstable.
A fateful vote
On 23 June 2016, 51.9% of voters opted to leave the European Union, in a campaign led by Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson that promised to "take back control" of borders, laws and money. The UK formally exited on 31 January 2020 and left the single market and customs union at the start of 2021.
Economic toll
Had the UK stayed in the EU, its GDP would have grown by 16.1% more than it actually did, according to simulations. The referendum alone triggered uncertainty that depressed investment and cost jobs. Although the weaker pound made hiring Britons cheaper for international firms, overall trade with the EU and inward investment have fallen sharply. The Office for Budget Responsibility now forecasts a long-term productivity loss of 4% compared to remaining in the bloc.
- Referendum: 51.9% vote to leave the EU
- UK formally departs the European Union
- UK exits the EU customs union and single market
- First official post-Brexit EU-UK summit
- Second EU-UK summit scheduled in Brussels
- UK set to rejoin the Erasmus programme
Political instability
Keir Starmer’s resignation just before the anniversary will make his successor the seventh prime minister in the ten years since the referendum. The Brexit campaign’s promises of lower immigration and a financial dividend for the NHS never materialised. Instead, the country remains deeply split, with the divide between Leavers and Remainers persisting even as the economic reality sinks in.
Shifting public mood
Polls now show that 56% of Britons would vote to rejoin the EU, while only 32% still consider the 2016 decision correct. Trust in the United States as a reliable ally has fallen to just 18%, and three-quarters of the public want closer ties with Brussels. Young people in particular feel the loss of freedom to live, study and work across the continent.
- Would vote to rejoin EU
- 56 %
- Think Brexit was right decision
- 32 %
- See US as reliable ally
- 18 %
- Want closer EU relations
- 75 %
Steps toward rapprochement
Starmer began a "reset" with Europe, hosting the first post-Brexit EU-UK summit in May 2025. A second summit is scheduled for 22 July in Brussels. From 2027, Britain will rejoin the Erasmus student exchange programme. Whether these steps lead to deeper reintegration remains uncertain, but the direction of travel is clear.
I still have the pound, he never got his hands on the euro.
