Brazil prepares for 2026 general election as Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro lead polls

Electoral mechanics and key contenders

On Sunday, 4 October 2026, 159 million registered voters in Brazil will cast ballots in the first round of the general elections. Electors will vote for the presidency, 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, 54 Senate seats, 26 state governors, the governor of the Federal District, and more than 1,000 state legislative positions. Voting is compulsory for citizens aged 18 to 69, with an abstention fine of 3.5 reais, and voluntary for illiterate citizens and those aged 16, 17, or 70 and older. The process uses electronic voting urns introduced in 1996 with biometric identification. Women make up more than half of the registered electorate, although they hold 18% of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies.

The presidential race and minor candidates

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, aged 80, seeks a fourth non-consecutive term, facing 45-year-old Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as his principal rival. While Lula holds a narrow lead in voter intention surveys, the margin suggests the race will head to a second round. Eleven other presidential contenders appear on the ballot, though none have crossed single digits in opinion polls. Writer and psychologist Augusto Cury and Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado each record 4% support, while right-wing activist Renan Santos registers 3%, and Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema polls at 1%.

Sovereignty debate and US funding probe

External relations have become a central campaign theme following allegations regarding US financial involvement in Brazilian affairs. The Office of the Attorney General of the Union formally asked the Federal Police and the Federal Public Ministry to investigate whether US funds supported domestic groups acting against the Federal Supreme Court. The request follows reporting that the administration of President Donald Trump redirected over 175 million dollars from a State Department democracy fund toward conservative programs abroad, including 1 million dollars allocated to initiatives in Brazil.

What cannot be admitted is that foreign political interests seek to interfere in the functioning of Brazilian institutions or influence, directly or indirectly, decisions that belong exclusively to the Brazilian people.

Economic pressures and climate policy

Voters face an economy characterized by high borrowing costs and slowing expansion. The Central Bank of Brazil projects gross domestic product growth of 1.8% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027, down from 2.3% in 2025. Quarterly GDP growth slowed from 1.1% in the first quarter of 2026 to 0.5% in the second quarter. To control inflation, the central bank maintained its Selic benchmark rate at 13.75% in September 2026 after earlier raising it to 15%. Public debt stands at 82.5% of GDP, with debt servicing absorbing more than 8% of national output.

Environmental policy represents another area of division among the candidates. An analysis by the Climate Observatory network, which includes more than 170 organizations, concluded that environmental issues remain largely secondary in campaign platforms despite severe droughts, floods, and forest fires. While Lula's platform includes commitments to rebuild environmental governance, it also maintains support for fossil fuel production.

And now, in campaign, Lula is the only one who presents a more consistent plan in climate matters. It reflects, to a certain extent, what is happening in terms of climate and environmental policy more broadly.